Funneling public money directly into the hands of his cronies was the point all along, everything else is just a bonus to Trump. I guarantee somewhere in there there are also kickbacks going to Trump and his buddies as well. If we ever manage to dislodge this bloated parasite we'll need a whole army of forensic accountants to go over every action he's ever taken to document all the embezzlement and fraud and maybe claw some of that money back.
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It's kind of both. Trump is a moron and some of what he does is failing and he doesn't understand why, but some of it is also working exactly like he planned. Trump is and always has been a conman. He is not a businessman, he is a conman. That's a very critical thing to understand. Everything he does is a grift of some kind, it's his default operating mode.
Every action he takes he intends to either enrich himself or attack someone he doesn't like. He never does anything that will benefit someone else unless he sees some way in which he can also benefit. He will always opt for the scummiest solution to any problem because he likes to feel like he "tricked" someone or got one over on them, that it somehow proves he's a brilliant businessman. He genuinely believes that scammer and businessman are the same thing.