• 6 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • While we should never underestimate the Democrats’ ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, there may be some legs to this one.

    The politics of these shutdowns is always to try and get the public to pin the blame on one side or the other. If Democrats take over the House, they control its agenda, and can simply make sure that no bill that includes funding for the Iran war gets passed. But, at some point a bill to fund the military will need to be passed, as an overwhelming majority of military spending is subject to appropriations. Thus means that the House is certain to pass a bill, with no funding for the Iran war, and Republicans have three choices:

    • filibuster it in the Senate (in which case Senate Republicans will be blamed, whether or not they are in the majority)

    • veto it (in which case Trump directly will be blamed)

    • sign it but still bomb Iran anyway (in which case Democrats now have an open-and-shut case for impeachment that might actually work)

    This war is extremely unpopular, and is a key part of the reason why Republicans are doing as poorly as they are. As vile as the Venezuela thing was, if Trump had stopped thereand not gone to Iran, then the Senate would likely not be in play. I think Republican Senators might finally be realizing that. If an impeachment resolution were to make it to the Senate right now, I think it would pass today, and that means it has even better chances of passing in the new Congress if Democrats take the Senate.


  • Not OP, but there are a lot of niche subreddits where you simply can’t get information anywhere else. I quit Reddit entirely after the APIocalypse, and I know around that time people started replicating the extensive network of Sports team subreddits in various places here. But, there are simply not enough people here to make that work.

    I have not logged in (other than to manipulate the crypto out of my Reddit Vault and sell it before it crashed) since then. There are precisely four subreddits I monitor via RSS because the info simply doesn’t make it here. But Reddit has already announced their RSS access is going away. When it does, I guess I’ll just have get that info somewhere else.


  • The Nasdaq and S&P clinched record highs just 10 days ago.

    This is why the market is so hard to time. Yes, the NASDAQ took a 2% haircut in one day, but it has also risen quite a bit, on AI hype.

    Even with this recent dip, the NASDAQ is up 20% since March, and over 2x since 2022. If you were heavily invested in tech, and decided over the summer to sell it all, you would still be a net loser vs. riding it through to today.

    We all just have to get used to the fact that the market is probably about 40-50% overbought as a general rule, and hope that any money we put in has the time to appreciate at least that much before the reckoning comes. (And it really does affect everyone, even if you have no money to invest in the market your retirement money is coming from the market, even if you are one of the few in the US who qualify for a pension. Where do you think pension funds park their money?)












  • Defendants (except for President Trump)

    Interesting little detail there. It seems like even with this much of a slam-dunk case, this judge doesn’t want to get into any business that tries to put limits on what a President can do.

    But Trump, himself, can’t really do much on his own. He needs his staff to execute his orders. When Trump (inevitably) ignores this and uses these words as an excuse to say “The judge specifically said I am allowed to do this”, I wonder if the judge has the balls to start holding White House staffers in civil contempt? Because that’s the only way this ruling will end up being enforced.