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Cake day: January 2nd, 2026

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  • Well, commandeering all the money from all bank accounts of people living in the Russia is quite a radical way to fund upgrades for a country. It will cause an unavoidable banking crisis that will destroy the country’s economy.

    But 600 billion did indeed exist in cash and gold in early 2022. That could indeed have been used in the way you describe. But Putin had other plans.


  • At least 300 billion, that’s known. Or 600 billion, if you count the money frozen by western countries. That’s how much money they had in their development fund in early 2022, and all of that is now used.

    But then, there are the preferential loans: The Russia needs cheap weapons, and that requires factories to sell their weapons far under the production costs. In order to enable that, the Russia has enacted a law that requires all commercial banks to give low-interest loans without any cautions to military industry. Those loans are not used for investing into anything, but only for paying for the workers’ salaries. That money will never be paid back to banks and apparently almost all the money of all commercial banks has been already used that way. So, you should add all the money any Russians have saved in their bank accounts in the number. I have no idea if that’s in tens or hundreds of billions.

    It is not yet visible in the budgets, but eventually all Russian banks will go bankrupt because of that, and then it becomes a cost for the state. It is, de facto, money used by the Russian Federation as well. And it’s a lot.

    I’d guess about one trillion dollar should be quite close to correct number if you also count the frozen assets and the preferential loans.



  • Not terribly much, actually. At least if it kicks the bucket relatively soon.

    In that case, JD Vance will automatically become the president, which is a horrible thing itself, but since he won’t be able to consolidate power very efficiently, there’s a good chance there will be presidential elections around when the 2025 presidential term ends, and then a president gets voted in, just as always.

    Of course, that will either mean that a lot of Republicans will end up in jail. And if that does not happen, the whole political system will lose its credibility and all of USA gets massively destabilised.

    But there are rules and if the new leadership bothers following them, things will roll as well or badly as they were rolling until 2024.