Releasing someone who made an extremely successful drug distribution ring while also threatening tariffs under the guise of a fentanyl crackdown.
Predictable behavior from someone who’s only consistent action is his golf schedule.
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The gambler’s fallacy is pretty easy to get, as is the Monty Hall problem if you restate the question as having 100 doors instead of 3. But for the life of me I don’t think I’ll ever have an intuitive understanding of the birthday problem. That one just boggles my mind constantly.