Hard to say. It mostly depends how much people are willing to purchase those useless goods and, then, how many people are willing to provide them an easy way to purchase those at the cheapest cost. If it's not China, it could be some other place. Think fashion if you want to understand how I consider the issue: it's a huge business with little sense to it when you think about it. Most people own way too much clothes already, more then what they would need in their lifetime but it's still not enough and they keep on buying more following trends and fashions, spending good money on something they don't need and they happily completely disregard the many environmental issues as well as the human ones (modern day slavery, child labor and so on). Because it's what they like and what they want an,d because it's so easy to buy a new pair of jeans or a skirt.

Most people are lazy and they like simplicity above anything else. Simplicity helps them stay lazy. They like that even above saving money or protecting their fundamentals rights as citizens (or to keeping breathable the air and the water they need to stay alive), they like it more than getting a better (but more demanding) education, and so on. We're lazy everywhere, most of us at least. And I mean everywhere, including here when commenting: I got two comments, including yours, to my message while a majority of people silently downvoted it. The thing is their clicking of a button won't help anyone (certainly not me) understand why my comment may or may not have deserved to be downvoted but writing and explaining their point of view, or their reasoning, instead of simply clicking that button is already too much work for them.

So, yeah I may be wrong that's a sure thing but I don't think a tax will change much in the amount of waste we create. Alas, it will be produced (and purchased) from some other place, end of the story.