But the news papers don’t go and klick a button in e.g. kalshi. Someone/something has to collect the news sources and change the state of the bet to ‘resolved’. Either a human arbitrator, or some consensus vote by users or something like that? And that would already be very problematic, like what’s to stop the arbitrator from deciding in their friends favor?
But why would anyone buy shares after an event resolved? You’d expect liquidity to dry up at that point. So i can’t imagine that this is how it’s ultimately resolved and you get paid out.
Usually with new security tools, e,g. fuzzers, you catch a whole bunch of bugs, and then that class of bugs is essentially eliminated, but the security arms race switches to different classes of bugs not solved by the tools. So yôu have a big initial peak of bugs found/fixed that slows to trickle. Remains to be seen if LLMs follow the same pattern.
How does calling the bets on those platforms actually work? Is it employees that need to decide which outcome happened? And can anyone make a bet? If so, how do they keep up with all the bets and even just knowing that a bet is ready to be called?
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ok, i decided to research this myself (so much for the wisdom of crowds).
some platforms have an admin pick what option was the outcome.
And some have a board of traders that vote on what the outcome was(maybe with votes weighted by how many shares of some token they own…)
so yeah, some admin on the platform or a few users are the ultimate arbitrer of truth, which sounds stupid to me. Especially since any ambiguity of the wording of the bet is up to them to figure out.
this page had nice examples of kalshi and polymarket resolution ‘failing’. Was also not surprised that polymarket uses crypto for resolution, of course there’s crypto involved in this somehow… it really fits the online gambling theme
I tiought it was ice age in north europe and heat waves and hurricanes in north america, it carries hot water up north and cold water from the poles down the american east coast.
Even for that, 4 legs like the robot dogs is easier/more stable. Plus purpose built robots that don’t need to move are generally cheaper and make more sense, like a dishwasher.
and ten 500 bucks purpose built robots are cheaper than one 20-50k humanoid robot that does tasks slowly and needs a human remote operator for most of them
and ‘revved up’
Oh my teeth hurt
Oh my tee-eeth hurt
It’s got to be my teeth hurt
Denmark and Norway. Not sure what he wants with the Netherlands, though.
Venta LW45 humidifier. easy to clean, uses like 8W/hour (compared to ~40 for ultrasonic or 300 for electric heating ones), quiet, goes through a 9l tank per day easily. And has almost no part that could break i.e. i could replace whatever could break easily.
but the price is insane for what amounts to a bucket with a fan
I wanted to punch someone when i realized my Bosch drill and Bosch electric saw use different batteries. They’re identical in size, but the plug part on one is a mirror image of the other and so not interchangeable
Uhm, should probably mention that MMT is a relatively fringe theory not supported by most mainstream economists. Saying “there’s nothing controversial here” seems more than a bit disingenous…
In a way, LLMs have already taken my job as a software engineer. It’s not that they can do my job better than me. But they suck all the joy out of the field, they expose the almost religious culture around efficiency and velocity in the field (no, i don’t want to be 5% faster to make the boss richer and feel miserable doing it) and how little my peers care about craft and quality. Also why do those fucks have to lap up every new technofacist oligarchy thing with such enthusiasm, it pisses me off.
so it’s not that it does my job, but that it showed me how much i disdain this field now.
I’m thinking of switching to something (cnc) machining/cad related, both skills i taught myself and love , but i don’t know what kind of position could be suitable given my dev knowledge and lack of formal training. Plus i wouldn’t want to do the operator kind of work where all you do is put stock in the cnc machine and execute someone elses CAM, that seems too close to using LLMs in spirit. I do want and like creative work and tinkering.
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and I’m lucky enough to work for a university, so good work life balance, job security, pension, mostly meaningful work. Ironically enough in the AI field… But that makes considering to switch even harder. I could easily and comfortably coast along and feel discontent for many years to come.
I think we’re more civilized nowadays. I’d be content with reintroducing the pillory. Especially the ‘In addition to being jeered and mocked, the criminal might be pelted with rotten food, mud, offal, dead animals, and animal excrement’ part.
Seriously though, hanging seems too quick/easy and I’m pretty sure public humiliation is a worse punishment for self important narcissistic fucks.
From an old XKCD What-If, which put it at 2.15 gigatons ships vs 2 gigatons fish. But that uses quite old numbers.
Looking at up to date data from the UN there’s 2.4 gigatons of ships. Note that this is dead-weight tonnage, so fully loaded. Empty is probably more like ~0.5 gigatons, so it’d depend on how fully loaded the ships are.
And a quick search turns up this paper which references several estimates for fish biomass form other papers, which would put fish biomass somewhere between 0.4 and 4.9 gigatons depending on estimate.
So I put it too strongly saying “more”, it’d be more accurate to say fish biomass and ship mass is within the same order of magnitude. Also note that it’s only fish, not like plankton, shrimp, etc.
There’s more ships in the ocean by weight than there’s fish.
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See my other comment below, probably more accurate to say the total weight of all ships is around the same as the total weight of all ocean fish.
That’s true of most of the tech bros, though. They’re all losers that haven’t built anything themselves and that have been successful despite themselves, not because of themselves, just because they have money and fail upwards
Either the one from the Robot and Monk series (psalm for the wild built by Becky Chambers) or the Culture series.
Yes but my whole question was about how a bet resolves, who decides it is resolved and who decides what the true outcome was. So i assumed your answer was to that question, which it didn’t seem to answer.
See the edit in my original post.