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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • You don’t need to poll everyone to get relatively accurate polling results.

    I have a related degree, it is possible with the necessary caveats, margins of error and confidence intervals. Statistics is a wonderful thing.

    This being said, I actually read the full 77 page document they linked to, and if I’m not mistaken the 55% comes from a 2021 telephone poll. Obviously phone only polls are likely to be biased, even if you correct for demographic factors like age.

    Then again, inflation is a problem.


  • I have a related degree.

    The study was conducted for CNN via web and telephone on the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults ages 18 or older recruited using probability-based sampling techniques.

    BUT…

    In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.

    Relevant bit:

    Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the August 3-6, 2017 survey and ending with the April 21-26, 2021 survey are from polls conducted by SSRS via telephone only

    TLDR: doubt those polls are representative.




  • nor are concrete plans to phase it out mentioned.

    Once again, the article you cited, with the bit you cut out included and in bold:

    Israel has also historically been permitted to use a portion of its FMF aid to buy equipment from Israeli defense firms—a benefit not granted to other recipients of U.S. military aid—but this domestic procurement is to be phased out in the next few years.

    And the article linked to in the article you cited:

    According to a congressional report, the “phasing out [of] Off-Shore Procurement (OSP) is to decrease slowly until FY2024, and then phase out more dramatically over the MOU’s last five years, ending entirely in FY2028.” As a consequence, the report notes “some Israeli defense contractors are merging with U.S. companies or opening U.S. subsidiaries”—in other words, transferring their personnel and capacities from Israel to the U.S.

    The only thing you’ve proved is your inability or unwillingness to read.

    Given previous interactions, I suspect it’s the former.

    You are factually wrong and I corrected you just accept it and move on.

    I’m sure you believe that. Good for you.


  • Just so you know, defacto means in practice. Not in law.

    Your second article is interesting:

    Israel has also historically been permitted to use a portion of its FMF aid to buy equipment from Israeli defense firms—a benefit not granted to other recipients of U.S. military aid

    I’ve posted the rest of the paragraph:

    Israel has also historically been permitted to use a portion of its FMF aid to buy equipment from Israeli defense firms—a benefit not granted to other recipients of U.S. military aid—but this domestic procurement is to be phased out in the next few years. U.S. aid reportedly accounts for some 15 percent of Israel’s defense budget. Israel, like many other countries, also buys U.S. military products outside of the FMF program.

    And the article you linked to goes on to say:

    Other experts argue that U.S. aid actually weakens Israel’s own defense industrial base while serving primarily as a guaranteed revenue stream for U.S. defense contractors.

    The article you linked to, then links to an article you really should have read before commenting.

    As the price of its dependency, Israel is now being forced to downgrade its own defense industries. Whereas the previous MOU contained a special provision for Off-Shore Procurement (OSP) that allowed Israel to spend around 26% of the aid it received on domestic products, the new terms require that all aid received from Washington be spent inside the U.S. In 2018, Israel’s Defense Ministry projected that the new MOU would cost the country $1.3 billion annually in lost revenue and cause the loss of some 22,000 jobs. Moshe Gafni, a former chairman of the Knesset’s financial committee, warned of the deal’s “severe ramifications for the delicate fabric of the State of Israel, harming its security.” A separate assessment in 2020 by the Israeli think tank INSS, concluded that “anywhere between several thousand and 20,000 of the 80,000 jobs in the defense industries in Israel will be lost.” … The consequences for Israel’s economy and to the country’s security posture will get more severe in coming years as the full bill from the MOU comes due. According to a congressional report, the “phasing out [of] Off-Shore Procurement (OSP) is to decrease slowly until FY2024, and then phase out more dramatically over the MOU’s last five years, ending entirely in FY2028.” As a consequence, the report notes “some Israeli defense contractors are merging with U.S. companies or opening U.S. subsidiaries”—in other words, transferring their personnel and capacities from Israel to the U.S. So, in return for a so-called “aid package” that actually costs Israel a fortune, the Jewish state is now tethered to its benefactor’s Iran-centric foreign policy and prohibited from capitalizing on its own considerable capabilities, while granting the U.S. access to its best military and scientific minds at a heavily reduced rate of pennies on the dollar. In turn, the ostensible largesse of this arrangement transforms Israel into a scapegoat for every lunatic conspiracy theorist in America to indulge in Jew-baiting in the guise of pontificating about “U.S. foreign policy.” Indeed, in order to maintain their own power, the entire cosmos of American Jewish organizations, with few exceptions, is now dedicated almost exclusively to maintaining an arrangement that cripples Israel’s capacity for independent action, while locking American Jews into a permanent posture of appearing to suck the U.S. government dry in order to fund their own niche overseas project.

    That’s an article you linked to indirectly. Not me.

    Look, this isn’t the first time this happened Linkerbaan, but you really need to read the articles you’re posting. Because if you don’t or give the appearance of disingeniously cutting out the bits you think don’t support your argument, you undermine any argument you make.

    Put simply, when you go around the fediverse going spouting unnuanced or underresearched rhetoric, in an attempt to virtue signal that you’re the fiercest critic of Israel, you are in fact undermining your argument and the cause of those who are critical of Israel’s far right government and the occupation.

    That’s assuming you actually care about the Palestinians, and this isn’t simply about parrotting Russian propaganda in the run-up to the US election.



  • Serious answer?

    Not in any particular order:

    1. Military aid to Israel is a defacto rebate for all the stuff they buy and a subsidy for the US defense industry. A lot of US politicians are on the military industrial complex payroll or end up working for it. A lot of Americans work in related industries.
    2. Just like with Europe, pushing them to buy American weaponry, ensures their native defense industry can’t become a significant competitor. (Obviously this is an issue in Europe right now, given we’ve been caught with a pants down because we’re too reliant on the US defense industry) For example, wouldn’t want the Israeli defense industry to develop their own highly capable missiles, because they might end up selling them to parties the US doesn’t want to have advanced tech, eg. some Israeli companies were found to have illegally sold China cruise missiles a few years back. That kind of thing would explode if the Israelis were independent for defense.
    3. Strategically interesting to have an ally in the middle-east, especially one with an excellent (foreign) intelligence service. Giving Israel aid also ensures neighbours don’t do anything stupid. A powerful military is the best deterent. A powerful conventional military, also avoids Israel going nuclear.
    4. Not the worst regime the US supports/has supported. Enemy of my enemy Real politik.
    5. AIPAC
    6. Evangelicals
    7. Outdated views of what Israel is actually like and a language barrier that has allowed Americans (and American reporters) to ignore the stuff not said in English.