CleverOleg

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports

The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday.
That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two of the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive discussions. No decision has been made on whether to approve that move, but it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government, these people added.
“Energy is the chokehold to kill the regime,” said one person familiar with the plan who was granted anonymity to describe the private discussions. Deposing the country’s communist government – in power since the Cuban revolution in 1959 – is “100 percent a 2026 event” in the administration’s eyes, this person added.
The effort would be justified under the 1994 LIBERTAD Act, better known as the Helms-Burton Act, this person added. That law codifies the U.S. embargo on Cuban trade and financial transactions.

While this is evil and I don't doubt the Trump admin will go ahead and do this, I do firmly believe that Cuba will not bow down to the imperialists. They survived the Special Period, the revolution will survive this. But it will be awful for living conditions on the island. I wouldn't be surprised if this is being leaked as a way to say "you can either suffer or you can capitulate". But what the people of Cuba know is, as awful as the action would be for Cuba, capitulation would be even worse.

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

I've been thinking a lot about this "plan" for Gaza that Kushner presented at Davos. It's something that is so obviously not going to ever happen, he may as well be presenting a plan for a Hyperloop from LA to NYC. But what's the purpose of even presenting this plan, then? It could be grift. It could be just some little toy they're giving Trump to play with while nothing ever changes. There is however, one fairly dark possibility that I think may be the "real" plan behind the plan.

What's happening on the ground in Gaza right now is that Israel is clearing out places and allegedly looking to build buildings that would super-concentrate Palestinians in a few incredibly dense areas. This is ostensibly to allow for cleanup and reconstruction of Gaza, but there's no reason to believe at all that Israel is telling the truth. I think the plan is for Israel to concentrate as many Gazans in a small an area as possible. Kushner's plan is just the cover for doing this and leaving large areas uninhabited. There will always be the promise of "oh yeah we'll get to building those high rises any day now", but Israel is just going to ensure those empty parts remain empty. That's why the plans call be just silly AI images and made up numbers, because there is no real plan to do any of that. They probably think they will move in settlers at some point. That's the plan, I'm sure the Resistance has other plans of course....

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

I am as skeptical as anyone at the ability of general strikes to work when you have such a small percentage of Americans unionized. But I am more than happy to eat my words as it looks like it’s gonna be huge in MN tomorrow. PSL looking strong af

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

I was curious what chuds were thinking so I read some comments under a Fox News article about Greenland. The consensus seems to be they think Trump probably knows more about threats to the US than we do, and taking Greenland is a legitimate security issue for the US and Europe.

It’s really bizarre, reading people who genuinely think Trump is some incredible, savvy genius. Just off living in their own private Idaho in their minds I guess.

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

I watched a video of the exchange, and I’m not sure Trump was all that serious about tariffing France; he seemed annoyed but his comment about the tariff I took as him just kinda riffing.

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 1mo ago

Jesus, dude.

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

Lenin's understanding of imperialism, while correct in it's time, will lead to incorrect conclusions if you apply it copy-and-paste to today's geopolitical reality without accounting for massive shifts in how imperialism manifests itself. Which is understandable, he was writing over 100 years ago and the world has changed so dramatically in that time. I really don't think even Lenin himself would disagree, if he were alive today (inshallah). In his time, imperialism was defined by various national capitalist powers of very roughly equal strength vying for control over resources, land, and people in the periphery. That rivalry no longer exists, imperialism has gone from a "flat" structure (capitalist powers fighting each other over imperialism) to a "vertical" structure (one capitalist power administering imperialism for the benefit of itself first and others second).

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

My tea's gone cold I'm wondering why I got out of bed at all

The morning rain clouds up my window and I can't see at all

And even if I could it'd all be gray, but your picture on my wall

It reminds me, that it's not so bad, it's not so bad

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

In addition to what others have said, the book is “about” reinforcing the idea to middle class strivers that no one in America “needs” to be poor. That wealth is attainable for anyone willing to work hard at it, thus poverty is a choice and so any social welfare is either unnecessary or outright harmful.

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

No one seems to know for sure what Trump means by “make a deal”, but it’s reasonable to assume he wants the government to effective end itself and hand over the country to the US. Cuba survived the Special Period with conceding, I believe they will get through this, too.

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

https://hexbear.net/comment/6819077

I really, really hope I’m wrong. But the problem is there isn’t really anything that Cuba can concede economically. So we have to assume Trump means political concessions, i.e. the government stepping down and accept direct rule from DC. I can’t see what else Trump could be demanding.

I’ll make a post about it, but the saving grace for Cuba might just be that they’ve been backed so far into the corner, giving up their sovereignty would be way worse than current conditions. The US will punish them hard for decades of insolence. Think like Russia in the 90s. Gusanos in Miami will be kicking out current residents as they take back “their” property. There will be an upper strata that might do ok but most Cubans will be way worse off if they capitulate to the US. I think most Cubans know this and will tell Trump to pound sand (and I don’t think the US is gonna do anything militarily against Cuba).

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

Anything in particular?

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

With Trump stating that shipments of oil from Venezuela to China will be allowed, coupled with the threats on Mexico, I am becoming increasingly worried that the primary target of all of this is Cuba and to force the government there to collapse by destroying their economy (no oil).

I don’t think this is Trump’s plan, this is all Rubio.

It seems like regarding Venezuela, the US’ plan is less about controlling production and more about distribution. No reason to think they will allow VZ to ship oil to Cuba.

As many here have pointed out, attacking Mexico doesn’t make sense. However, I think the plan is to scare Mexico into allowing the US to have a say in who Mexico is allowed to trade with. And Mexico ships a not insignificant amount of oil to Cuba. This would seemingly align with Sheinbaum’s odd statement about how they have not increased oil shipments to Cuba recently, trying to avoid the attention of the US.

If the US can cut off oil shipments from Mexico and Venezuela to Cuba, I don’t know how Cuba will get critical oil supplies delivered.

Beyond Cuba, it seems to me the US is looking to control trade flows for the entire western hemisphere. The idea is to not only increase the exploitation the US imposes, but to control those trade relationships between Latin America and the rest of the world, to serve the US’ purposes.

I am not someone who is prone to geopolitical pessimism; and I know the commitment to the revolution the Cuban people hold in their hearts… but I am really worried for Cuba right now.

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CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

We are witnessing levels of hubris not seen in 25 years, maybe more. This administration feels totally bulletproof right now. I’m sure they think the sanctions won’t even hit, that Russia will simply capitulate before they go into effect.

Comparisons to the Third Reich seem cliche, but idk it really feels like something clicked in the last week in the halls of power in DC. They realized that they can pretty much do whatever the fuck they want to, and (for now) no one will stop them. It’s like we’re seeing the beginnings of a geopolitical blitzkreig.

CleverOleg [he/him] @hexbear.net 2mo ago

I wonder if the “spheres of influence” was all more unspoken understanding and Russia and China responding to what they saw the US doing.

I think Trump and Rubio are driving most of this, for different reasons. Trump is absolutely high as a kite on what he sees as a hugely successful operation in VZ + it being clear to him he can just take Greenland whenever he wants, and the Europeans (and rest of the world) will do nothing. He might have been thinking in terms of spheres of influence a week ago, but his ego has gotten such a huge hit of narcissistic supply he might be going back on that. He is feeling goddamn invincible right now.

And Rubio, who I think is the real puppet master behind all this, sees his goals are all within his grasp. He can cut off Cuba’s supply of oil and hurt them bad. I think he cares about Latam first and foremost but maybe he’s also feeling a bit of that invincibility. He’s always been a China hawk even if it’s secondary to him after Cuba and Venezuela. Idk I do think he’s ideologically committed to anti-communism, he might relish the opportunity to try and really hurt China.

Of course all it takes is for China to go back and stop rare earth exports and we might see a lot of all this get reversed.