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  • The four-day live-in rationality workshops at CFAR remind me of the live-in blog fests and conferences at Lighthaven. Someone in the comments to the January 2016 posts asks why pay $4,000 for a workshop in the SF Bay Area when you can learn similar content at a college where you live or from free online courses (the commenter later recanted this blatant heresy). Its hard to argue that in-person events in the SF Bay Area are an efficient use of funds, but they let people who already live there keep themselves busy.

    Hello from the Center for Applied Rationality! ... We have a new experimental mini-workshop coming up soon (June 2025) and hopefully more workshop content to follow after! ... Pricing is $750 for the CFAR event, plus another $450 to sign up for Arbor (at Lighthaven in Berkeley). This is notably cheaper than the $3900 we've historically charged for most mainline CFAR workshops, since it's a more experimental program -- future workshops will likely be more expensive than this test. https://less-wrong.livejournal.com/4396115.html

    This post claims that they could not find anyone doing anything similar https://acritch.com/cfar-scaling/ I know a US military veteran who had a critical thinking course which he pulled out whenever he had a training day to occupy, so maybe they needed to look outside their bubble?

  • Does anyone know a summary of the shakeup at CFAR in 2016? In January AnnaSalomon promised LessWrong that "CFAR's mission is to improve the sanity/thinking skill of those who are most likely to actually usefully impact the world." In December she announced a pivot to preventing the Reign of Steel. Julia Galef left that year and has not been very visible since. Her husband Luke Muehlhauser is OpenPhil's Managing Director for AI Governance & Policy so still Roko-curious.

    LessWrongers sometimes say that Michael Vassar influenced the curriculum of CFAR's workshops even though he was no longer employed by a Rationalist charity. Brent Dill was living in Berkeley participating in rationalist events at that time.

  • The piss filter on the bottom comics!

    Twitter and bluesky chatter have done so much damage to people's understanding of uspol although I don't know that cable news or talk radio were any better.

  • Another surprise is that illegal weed still has 30% of the market in Canada. I don't know how much of that is consumer inertia ("My buddy Mike always gets me the good stuff eh") and how much is avoiding taxes.

  • I didn't know that Moray in QC was around in 2018!

    <Crumbles into dust.>

    That is a good example because it shows the failure of imagination (can imagine the end of the world, can't imagine working public transit and public policy to discourage driving) and because hf he thought it through he might get to "humh, some people like to drive, but its bad for public and social health, how can we discourage it while preserving liberties?"

    I really wonder what he did as a medical student in Cork other than study and read racist Tumblr accounts. Did his friends never drag him to Amsterdam to ride a bike and eat an edible?

  • Blast from the past: in 2014, Scott Alexander posted a take on marijuana legalization which showed excellent knowledge of medical papers but huge gaps in his knowledge of what brown people or smart policy reformers have to say. David Gerard and Christopher Hallquist in the comments, digression on how pot affects your IQ with gwern chipping in. Alexander came back in 2018 promising that he was right all along with a footnote about how some people in the comments told him that people like smoking weed and he did not know how to process that because his utilitarian calculation said it was bad for society.

  • bad at epistemology

    Gwern once denied chaos theory in a way that Freeman Dyson called out in 1985, and as LessWrongers go he is a pretty clear thinker!

  • It can help to think of the current US administration as less the Third Reich, more a postcolonial dictatorship. That is also a description not a value judgement: POTUS is a reality-TV star who dreams of being a Mafia boss.

  • How the frigg does anyone in the SF Bay Area in 2026 still believe that most of what big American web service companies do is driven by the profit motive? They are more like big-talking Geniuses getting a king to give them some money and promising they will make something cool (with Google's and Facebook's advertising and AWS and Amazon retail standing in for taxing millions of peasants). Arms like Google ads and Amazon Web Services fund billions of dollars of money-losing nonsense.

  • That depends, remember that you are losing five years of growth and dividends and if you are are a wise investor every year or so you sell some of what is doing best and buy some of what has been doing worst to lock in your gains. Also remember that you have to buy back in to gain anything from that crash, and its really hard to buy stocks when the market has just lost half its value. Most people who 'successfully predict a recession' sell too early and buy back too late so are not very far ahead.

    But if you really believe that the US economy will crash by say the end of 2027, you think other assets will do better, and there are ways to buy them.

    The USA is about 60% of the global stock market by market capitalization. Right now its much less than 60% of my stock holdings.

  • Investing is all about relative performance. If you think 'AI' stocks are a bubble. you think that some other stocks will do better than them over the next five years, and you can allocate your assets accordingly.

  • Usually AI boosters are claiming that soon most humans will be economically useless, not that it would be terrible if there were fewer white people. One reason people avoid having children is that they feel economically insecure and doubt there will be respected places in society for their offspring.

    Dwarkesh Patel is the only other Indian American I have seen who is friends with our friends.

  • Someone in the comments used an ?AI-powered? fact-checking tool to push back on some of the claims that inheriting an old house in Japan is a burden. I especially doubt that the land the house is on is worth nothing.

    It is miserable to live in a dying town or village and many people talk about this problem in Italy, Moldova, Canada, and other countries.

  • It is a viable business and it fuels the spread of disinformation. Have you noticed that Old Media magazines have online wings that are full of random advertorials? That is because Google declared that they are Good Domains and upranked them so all the sleazy online marketing migrated to them.

    That is also why people buy formerly respected domains and put casinos, propaganda, or virus-laden porn on them.

  • gutter racist and eugenicist beliefs

    The Sam Kriss article in Harpers above focuses on "these people don't know how to be happy" and never gets around to saying "Scott Alexander is gentle in person but wants to get rid of or sterilize poor brown people and helped people like Curtis Yarvin rise to power."

    Note that SlateScott's group home is named after a Lord of the Rings location

  • Its prudent to be skeptical of anonymous Internet posts, but its also prudent to read a Leverage staffer on how her boss "had three long-term consensual relationships with women employed by Leverage Research or affiliated organizations", close the tab, and make a note to never have anything to do with anyone from that organization in the future.

  • Posting for archival and indexing purposes: u/GorillasAreForEating found an Urbit post titled "Quis cancellat ipsos cancellores?" which complains that Aella takes it on herself to exclude people and movements from the broader LessWrong/Effective Altruist community. The poster says that Aella was the anonymous person who pushed CFAR to finally do something about Brent Dill, because she was roommates with "Persephone." He or she does not quite say that any of the accusations were untrue, just that "an anonymous, unverified report" says that some details were changed by an editor, and that her Medium post was of "dramatically lower fidelity, but higher memetic virulence" than Brent's buddies investigating him behind closed doors (Dill posted about domming a 16-year-old who he met when she was 15 and he was ~27). The poster accuses Aella of using substances and BDSM games to blur the line of consent.

    The post names Joscha Bach as someone Aella tried to exclude. We recently talked abut Bach's attempt to get Jeffrey Epstein to fund an event where our friends would speak.

    Often, people in messed-up situations point at a very similar situation and say "at least we are not like that." I hope that all of these people find friends who can give them perspective that none of these communities are healthy or just. Whether you are in to bull sessions or polyamory, there are healthy communities to explore in any medium-sized city!

  • SneerClub @awful.systems

    Stephen and Steven

  • SneerClub @awful.systems

    Selfishness and Altruism

  • SneerClub @awful.systems

    Has anyone with psychiatry training ever commented on Scott Alexander's ideas?

  • SneerClub @awful.systems

    4Chan Unsong About NPCs