Is Lebanon Inching Toward Civil War?

The Lebanese state, angered by Hezbollah’s defiance, has officially banned the group’s military wing. But can the state actually stop Hezbollah from firing salvos at Israel—or, for that matter, even from aiming at the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) if challenged?

It has long been feared that if the Lebanese state took on Hezbollah, it could split the LAF, inflame sectarian tensions, and lead to a civil war. But some believe that the ghost of the country’s last civil war is a convenient narrative excuse that only serves Hezbollah and keeps the Lebanese state a hostage to its whims.

Some in Lebanon hoped that Hezbollah would refrain from attacking Israel if only to prove its stated raison d’être of protecting Lebanon from external threats rather than serving at Iran’s beck and call.