How the climate repricing of housing will unfold

In the long run, the best homes to own will be the most climate resilient. (Boring take, but true.) The long run here means in 2100 and beyond when global temperatures are 3 degrees hotter, sea levels have risen higher, and weather disasters are even more destructive. Though 2100 may seem impossibly far off, today’s elementary and middle school students will, with a bit of luck, still be alive. In fact, 2026 is closer to the year 2100 than it is to the births of people who were in college in the 1960s.

But what about the less-long run? What if you’re 65 or 70, expect to live for 15-25 more years, and want to retire in Florida? Are there parts of the Sunshine State that while a bad bet for 2100 might be a reasonable option for 2040-2050? (For our purposes, “reasonable option” means a community where homes will gain, or at least maintain, their value in that window of time.)

One way to think about this question is: Will the dynamic of people fleeing climate vulnerable places tend to boost, at least for a while, the value of homes in nearby areas? There are two categories of evidence that suggest the answer is yes.