On thinning ice: After almost four years of war, Russia’s central bankers are running out of tricks to keep the economy afloat

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45051999

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"Inflation ... starts to rise, especially when, as in Russia, government spending does not go toward anything productive that would help the economy grow. Money loses value, consumption becomes harder, real income growth stops, the stimulus runs out, inflation falls, and the economy begins to retreat. In Russia, this stage has lasted since late 2024. That means the economy has not grown in real terms for a year. Some sectors have begun to decline, and consumption is starting to stagnate."

Fear of inflation and a reluctance to explain to society why it has been forced to make such large and seemingly pointless sacrifices have combined to push the regime toward an austerity policy for 2026 — raising taxes and cutting spending — including on the military, if official budget figures for next year are to be believed.

But this belt-tightening has come too late. The burden placed on the economy’s net donors — the people and enterprises forced to subsidize everyone else — has already become excessive. Under its weight, the productive sector has begun to contract, causing tax revenues levied on profits, turnover, value added, and existing assets to fall.

The Russian economy that enters 2026 is like a group of people standing on a slowly melting ice floe. The support structure is melting on its own, but the unfortunate polar explorers are also constantly breaking off ever-larger chunks and, out of spite, throwing them at equally desperate people on a neighboring floe. It is hard even to imagine the effort and sacrifices that will be required to return to normality once the leadership on the “Russia” ice floe inevitably changes.

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