The economic reality of lunar competition: beyond the space race rhetoric
The economic reality of lunar competition: beyond the space race rhetoric
...At current costs, a lunar program of four launches per year would consume $16 billion annually—a large fraction of the agency’s entire budget. This isn’t just expensive; it’s economically incoherent as a foundation for sustained lunar presence...
...The Trump Administration initially proposed a historic 24% cut to NASA’s budget, including 47% reductions to science programs. Congress is moving to restore those cuts, but only after months of uncertainty that disrupted program planning and contractor relationships— exactly the kind of instability that drives up costs in complex technical programs...
...Real economic priorities don’t face 24% budget cuts in the first place...
...Rushing to meet arbitrary political deadlines means accepting higher costs and technical compromises that increase long-term program expenses. The SLS exemplifies this problem: a vehicle designed by political requirements rather than economic optimization, resulting in costs that make sustained operations prohibitive. The political imperative to use existing contractors and proven technologies to minimize schedule risk actively inhibits the cost-reducing innovations that could make lunar operations economically viable...