That’s my thinking as well. The US finds itself in a scenario where there’s no good outcome. With Ukraine being a proxy war, the US could always just walk away. But with Iran, it’s a direct conflict and even if the US decided to pack up and leave, Iran can just keep the strait closed until they get reparations. So, Americans can’t end this was on their terms. And this is going to be a colossal drain on resources for them. The economy in the US was already in a bad shape by all accounts, and such a massive energy price shock could be the catalyst for a financial crisis. Even the whole AI based economy, which is the only sector doing well, need massive amount of energy for data centers. If energy prices keep shooting up, which they almost certainly will, the cost of operating all this infrastructure will skyrocket.
One worry for countries like Cuba and Venezuela is that the US might try settling for becoming a regional power, and as they retrench from being a global hegemon, they will double down on brutalizing Latin America. Whether they will have the resources to do that, and the necessary domestic social cohesion remains to be seen. Overall, I do think that the days of the US playing world police are now over.
That’s my thinking as well. The US finds itself in a scenario where there’s no good outcome. With Ukraine being a proxy war, the US could always just walk away. But with Iran, it’s a direct conflict and even if the US decided to pack up and leave, Iran can just keep the strait closed until they get reparations. So, Americans can’t end this was on their terms. And this is going to be a colossal drain on resources for them. The economy in the US was already in a bad shape by all accounts, and such a massive energy price shock could be the catalyst for a financial crisis. Even the whole AI based economy, which is the only sector doing well, need massive amount of energy for data centers. If energy prices keep shooting up, which they almost certainly will, the cost of operating all this infrastructure will skyrocket.
One worry for countries like Cuba and Venezuela is that the US might try settling for becoming a regional power, and as they retrench from being a global hegemon, they will double down on brutalizing Latin America. Whether they will have the resources to do that, and the necessary domestic social cohesion remains to be seen. Overall, I do think that the days of the US playing world police are now over.