Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9202260
Vladimir Putin will spark a third world war if the Russian president is allowed to declare victory in Ukraine, according to the boss of the country’s biggest private employer.
Yuriy Ryzhenkov, chief executive of Metinvest, which ran the sprawling Azovstal steelworks that became the site of a relentless Russian assault at the start of the 2022 invasion, warned of the consequences of a Kremlin victory.
“I don’t believe that if Ukraine fails, Putin will stop,” he said in an interview ahead of the two year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. “The Baltic states, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia are the next targets.”
Economically sure, strategically maybe, it depends on a lot of other things.
The Black Sea has a single point of access which leads to a even smaller sea (Marmara, which is 1/5 the size of Lake Michigan). And the access is controlled by a NATO country (Turkey), pass through the city of Istanbul and is within the reach of Bulgaria, another NATO member. Even assuming Russia can somehow seize it, there is then the Dardanelli, which is within the reach of Greece (a NATO member). From here there is the Aegean Sea, which is under the reach of Greece. Not to mention that to even arrive to (or leave from) the Aegean Sea, a fleet neet to go through Gibraltar, go south of Italy and once out he need to sail in the Atlantic (NATO members on both sides) and then north, along a long list of NATO members.
Honestly, in a war if a fleet try to enter the Black Sea, it will just be a sitting duck, even assuming it even succeeds in doing so. Even the oil and gas are usefull only to be moved by road, there is no way that a ship could even exit the Black Sea. Nah, if Russia goes to war with NATO, the Black Sea is strategically useless.
Maybe, but it would be much more smart to do it economically.
Well, I’d agree if Russia tried to do it economically (like China is trying to do) but it is not that they can just invade every country they like to have.
So Russia can have Alaska ?
Nobody say that Russia cannot be a competitor for a position of Top Dog, it is the method they used that it not acceptable today.
So why is it acceptable for America to stage coups, rig elections, and assassinate leaders covertly, but not okay for Russia to try to take control of an area openly? America declared their puppet the president of Venezuela (in spite of Maduro winning a legitimate election) like 5 years ago. You might say “but less blood shed!”, but Pinochet sure as hell shed a lot of blood when the CIA installed him. And venezuala was economically ruined by the CIA in the 70s. So if we’re looking at means, if I’m a civilian in Ukraine, I’d rather have our army fight Russias army openly, than have America take power via subterfuge and destroy us from the inside. The Russia style doesn’t directly attack civilians, unlike the US method.
Control of the black sea is universally useful. Imagine if Russia could threaten a sea invasion of Israel if they keep up the genocide. Or be supplying Gaza with the food Israel keeps out. Militarily, it’s not about getting out of the black sea, it’s about exerting your strength on the adjacent land.
Alaska was never meaningfully Russian, the natives and the cities built there have nothing to do with russia. Not so for Crimea.
Nobody said these are right, but we are not discussing that.
So you need even a geography book: between The Black sea and Israel there is Turkey. But still, in a war how do you plan to move a fleet out the black sea without loosing it ?
Still Turkey on the way, which is the adjacent land. Man, open Google Maps for once.
Aside Russia sold Alaska to US in 1867 for 7.2 million dollars. You don’t even know your country history…
Oh huh, I was sure Israel and Palestine were next to turkey, lol.
That’s my point though, you can’t plan to move a ship out of the black sea. It’s useful purely defensively.
I am aware Russia sold Alaska to us, but very few Russians ever lived there. It was never meaningfully russian.
My point about America doing coups, etc is that America is now acting like they’re the heros fighting Russian evil, when it’s literally just to have someone to sell weapons to. It’s just another way the oligarchs are stealing our money from us.
Yes, and you were talking about the importance of the Black Sea for a sea invasion of Israel, so ? I only pointed out that to stage a sea invasion of Israel the Black Sea is useless.
How exactly ? You cannot move anything out but your enemy can move everything in and out. How do you think you can use it to defend yourself when the entry point and half the coast is under NATO control ? I mean, Russia is losing ships to a country that don’t even had a Navy, what do you think will happen if NATO put a fleet in the Black Sea ? Or NATO decide that after all Sevastopol need to be leveled ?
Nobody here think America is the hero, but that Russia is the villain. And still, we are discussing about what Russia is doing, not what US did.
I was just using Israel as an example, I dont think Russia even would invade Israel right now if capable. Imagine if the eastern med was controlled by an enemy of Israel though. They could actually affect the genocide. That’s why sea power is so vital.
There is no chance an invading army/navy could get through Constantinople without control of the black sea. It’s the ultimate choke point. It forces any would be invader to come at Russia through turkey.
America is not the hero, and so the reason they are arming Ukraine is entirely out of self interest for their capitalists. America wants to prevent Russian southern stability, because if somebody is trying to come at Russia through Constantinople, it’ll be America (or a hired warlord, more likely). Russia having useful ports hinders America’s power to meaningfully sanction those they dislike. Cuba, for instance, can’t trade with anyone in Europe, due to American sanctions. If Russia could trade with them more effectively, that weakens the American stranglehold. Right now the world needs a check on America a lot more than it does preventing Putin taking control black sea ports.
I see your idea but it is absolutely irrealistic.
Even assuming you take control of the Black Sea and Turkey (without the infamous article 5 trigger), to be able to control the easter med you need to be able to project power, which you cannot. It is not that difficult to stop a fleet just outside/inside the Marmar Sea and out of Gibaltar.
It is the same to try to get out the Black Sea. But so far if someone want to invade Russia from the Black Sea it could, because the only way for Russia to have help (I mean ships, not infantry) is from Gibraltar which is even more easy to close to them while the invader could do whatever he want.
Or maybe they understood, like Europe did even if too late, that Russia doing it this way is dangerous for everyone. I am not that naive to not understand that US do it for their own interest but on the other hand I’m not that stupid to not understand that if we let Russia (and a bunch of others) to continue to destabilize the situation it is bad for everyone.
It is not, but this is not the topic of our discussion. It is Russia and what they are doing. That the USA have their own problems is true, but not the topic.
I think you missed most of the news regarding the war in Ukraine. The Russian Army is targeting the infrastructure and civilians. So many rockets hit civilian houses in Kyiv and other cities. Schools, hospitals, you name it. Everything is fair game for the russian Artillery. Some observer even muse about that the Russian Army is targeting civilians deliberately as a tactic of terror to instill a war weariness and a longing for peace out of self preservation.
If they had control over the Black Sea they still couldn’t threaten a sea invasion of Israel. You would have to have control over the Mediterranian.
But let’s assume they had control over the Black Sea. Why would they try to stop Israel? At the moment the war in the Gaza Strip is not something they would like to be involved in since it is a distraction for the world and it is a good way to siphon off military goods from the USA.
Alaska would be a perfect starting point for conquering Canada and the USA, control of the Bering Sea, and the ressources hidden beneath the surface. But that’s besides the point.
Crimea hadn’t been part of the Soviet Union since 1954. Since then it’s been part of Ukraine. So the question would be more along the lines: how long would it take for you to something not be a part of another country?
To illustrate my argument: Europe is a continent filled with a history of big empires that rose and fall. So if you go about 150 years into the past, middle europe was dominated by Germany (the Kaiserreich). Would you say that Germany has any claim to the now polish provinces that were german 80 years ago (Danzig, Pommern, Königsberg et. al.)? If we go further into the past, we have Sweden for most of the Baltic Sea. France would also be a strong contender looking at what Napoleon subjugated.
And so on and so on. You can’t just go into the past and pick a date. The ramifications are too complex.
Crimea was in the USSR, no? So it’s been 30 years since the area which is now Russia had control of Crimea. I have no idea how long ago is too long, but probably a human lifespan maximum is reasonable. Part of the calculus I’m using is literally just “can the country win a war for the area?”. Which is why Alaska is not debatable. Like, Russia really wants Crimea, they will most likely win the war eventually, why not let them have it if it means ending the war? If they were to then try to take more land, that’s when we put our foot down. Sure it’s a bad precedent, but who says we have to follow precedent? It’s really just America that cares about Russia not getting stronger, the rest of the world should want all of Russia, China, and America to be roughly equal.
If Alaska is a great starting point for invasion, then we definitely should not let them take Alaska.
Yes, you’re right. I thought Ukraine was kinda independent since they had a seat in the UN, but I was wrong. So it’s been roughly 30 years, yes.
And that is exactly what Gian and I are refering to. In the 1930s it was “If Germany gets Austria, it would be peace in our time.” “If Germany gets Sudetenland, it would be peace in our time.” But Hitler was never satisfied.
And here lies the problem. De facto they already had Crimea. There is no way around that they occupied it and no one lifted a finger. Now they want the Donbass Region with all the iron and coal. Luhansk and Donetsk.
So “If Russia gets Crimea, there will be peace in our time.” doesn’t ring quite so good now. “If Russia gets Donbass, there will be peace in our time” is the exact same mistake that was made 90 years ago. And those mistakes cost many lives.
No. The European Union also cares about Russia getting stronger. Well I for myself don’t want an authoritarian governmant to just invade neighbours because they feel like it. The European Union tried to integrate Russia by trading with them, but we see that that didn’t quite get the result that was hoped for.
I do get, what you’re trying to say that China, Russia and the USA should be roughly equal, but the EU is missing and to be honest, two Superpowers being authoritarian is more frightening than anything else.
I don’t really see a distinction between Crimea and Donbass/Donetsk. To me it’s the same placeAnd supposedly the people of those regions voted to leave Ukraine, right? So that essentially makes Russia equivalent to France in the American revolution.
It’d be great if no one ever invaded anywhere else, but it won’t happen. Best we can do is resolve it as peacefully as possible. I see democracy as the same as simulated war: one side has 20,000 men, one has 15,000, let’s just assume the bigger army will win and skip the war altogether. Russia has a bigger army, we should just call the war and be done with it. There’s no reason global politics have to adhere to precedent.
Man, study some of your country history, you will do yourself a favor.
What you are referring to is completely wrong. France intervened as US ally after the what will become US declared war against England. To compare to the actual situation, it would be that US are France, Ukraine is the rebel colonies and Russia is England.
Which is the exact mentality that provoked WWII.
Sometimes I think that what US needs is to have a real war fought on their home land, only this way you will understand how wrong is what you are saying. Not that I hope so, but it would be a learning lesson.
It don’t work this way, sorry. And your assumption is completely wrong. Or are you trying to say that if North Korea declare war against US then US will lose ?
North Korea doesn’t have a larger army than USA.
The regions at war have declared independence from Ukraine. It’s the same situation as America was in, except that France wasn’t trying to make the colonies become french. But they certainly expected a high level of control over them.
Comparing it to WW2 is insane, it’s not remotely the same situation.
Wikipedia begs to differ. According to the list from the “International Institute for Strategic Studies” North Korea has a total (active, reserve and paramilitary) of a little less than 7.8 million people. US a little more than 2 million.
But ok, let’s consider only the active military, so let’s switch North Korea with China.
China have bigger army, so they can take the US, since in the case of a war, it is supposed that China will win.
Aside it seems a lot like the years before WWII…
Supposedly. One side says it were fair elections the other doubts that. So, who is right? The side that had soldiers at the voting booths, oppresses the people there, deports and kills the people living there, or the one to which the regions belong that wants to live in peace?
Since I made these points over and over again that the votings for independence are not fair and equal, that Russia is violating international law, and they are attacking an independent country, I will stop here since we’re going round in circles.
I mean, I believe the side not allied with a country known to rig elections and openly spread propaganda about their victims. Recently the US president claimed to have personally seen videos of Hamas beheading babies, which never existed. Russia spreads propaganda internally too, but historically only about internal affairs, not shit like claiming Venezuelas election was rigged in order to install a puppet.
Obviously using larger army as a metric doesn’t make sense in the long term. It only works in spots where you’ve already committed to a war.
Saying it wasn’t a legit election because Russian soldiers were there is stupid. That can just as easily be used as proof that it was legitimate. I’m sure Britain looked like the peaceful side during the US revolution as well, does that make France the bad guys in that war?
Given that other people had seen them and people are now starting to speak about the horrors they witnessed (or have been subjected to), I would doubt it. But still, not the point.
Sure. Already asked: then what do you think is a rigged election ?
If the Black Sea is a great starting point for invasione, then we definitely should not let them take the Black Sea.
It’s not though. It’s strategic importance is purely defensive. It is useful for influencing places that border the black sea. It’s completely irrelevant to an attack on anywhere else
Do you realize that “influencing places that border the Black Sea” means “influencing 3 NATO members and Ukraine” which basically are the 90% of the coast of the Black Sea. Invading one of the only two non NATO members facing the Black Sear does not seems a particular intellingent way to try to influence the others…
By influence, I meant militarily.
Then it is even dumber doing it this way.