Ukraine and European leaders agreed on Saturday to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from 12 May with the backing of US president Donald Trump, threatening president Vladimir Putin with new “massive” sanctions if he failed to comply.
The announcement was made by the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine after a meeting in Kyiv, during which they held a phone call with Trump.
Why? Primary sanctions didn’t. The US and Europe effectively crashed out of Russia’s economy for the most part; they lost access to Western banking, Western businesses abandoned Russia in droves, and the oil and gas sales to Europe that Russia is heavily dependent upon have been significantly reduced. Yet they seem to be doing fine, so what’s left?
Also, why on earth would China walk away from trade with Russia? It’s pretty clear the US-led world order of trade is falling apart and China hasn’t been the one begging for trade deals over here, they seem fine to just write us off and go on about their business elsewhere in the world, I doubt they would have any compunction about doing the same to Europe if it came to that (which I doubt it will.)
The total amount of Chinese trade with Russia is less than the deficit Europe has with China. Secondary sanctions would mean they lose access to the EU which is about 4 times the population size of Russia, and same again for the US. China is pragmatic, and they don’t want that difficulty in favour of propping up a failing regime.
Yeah the Trump regime is stupid and cant handle international relations. Why would China engage.
The amount of trade is not the only thing that matters. Russia exports food, fertiliser and oil. Trade with Europe / US is mostly in luxuries. If forced to choose between them, China will likely choose the first.
(More likely they won’t be forced to choose because they control multiple key supply chains, and can sink the economy of any country except maybe the USA.)
It’s even more stark for my country. No trade with the west means we lose a lot of export revenue, and our growth slows. No trade with Russia means famine and fuel shortages. It’s not even a choice.