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If you’re in a safe seat, then no they don’t care about your vote as much, so they don’t care about your protest vote as much.
If you’re in a swing seat, then they care about your vote more, and therefore your protest vote has more weight.
Democrats caring about your vote is by definition inexorably linked to how powerful your vote is.
But since we’re talking hypotheticals, if there’s another genocide in 5 years, why would the democrats spend political capital to prevent it if they have solid data to show that they don’t need to bother and can still win reelection?
That they can just point out how much worse the republicans might be in this scenario? You think Trump will be the only bad potential president? You think if you can get past this one election that US politics will return to “normal”? There’s more or less always going to be a Trump from now on.