Moldova has gained economic leverage over the breakaway region on the left bank of the Dniester as Russian-backed economic support weakens, creating new opportunities for the country’s reintegration, an IDIS Viitorul study (in Romanian) says.

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Transnistria faces a deepening economic crisis that shifts the balance of economic dependence between the two banks of the Dniester river in favour of Moldova and the European Union, the researchers say.

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According to the research, the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 19.4% in 2025, while industrial output declined by 20%.

External sales dropped by 39.7%, from $722.8 million to $435.9 million (€389.9 million, approximately 7.87 billion MDL). The figure includes exports to other countries and sales to Moldova’s right bank, according to the study.

The researchers say that approximately 77% of the region’s exports are destined for the European Union (EU), highlighting its growing dependence on European markets.

The region’s registered population fell to approximately 460,000 in 2025, while an estimated 165,000 people were living abroad, according to figures cited in the research.

Salaries and pensions on the left bank are currently around half the levels recorded on the right bank, the authors say.

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The traditional economic model, based on Russian natural gas supplied without immediate payment, subsidies, smuggling and political patronage, can no longer sustain the separatist administration, according to the researchers.

Internal reforms are unlikely because expressions of criticism are suppressed, said Liubomir Chiriac, executive director of IDIS Viitorul.

Moldova’s European integration and territorial reintegration must advance simultaneously, he said, adding that the authorities should carefully examine the study’s recommendations.

“Both Moldova’s integration process and the reintegration of the left-bank region must proceed in parallel,” Chiriac said.

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One of the study’s main findings is that the economic balance between the two banks of the Dniester has shifted in Moldova’s favour.

More than 86% of the region’s external sales depend on Moldova’s customs services, certificates of origin and legislation. Meanwhile, 77% of its exports are directed towards EU markets, according to the study.

Official Moldovan government figures provide additional evidence of this commercial reorientation. In 2025, 71% of the region’s overall trade activity was directed towards the EU, according to data supplied by the Customs Service. The corresponding share reached 76.9% in the first half of 2026.

Romania, Poland and Italy were among the main destinations for exports in 2025.

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The researchers say Chisinau has strengthened its position through measures including its refusal to return to the 5+2 negotiation format and the introduction of tax obligations for businesses operating in the region.

Russia, meanwhile, no longer has the resources to maintain its previous system of economic support. The Russian military presence and repressive mechanisms remain the main instruments of control available to the separatist administration, according to the study.

This shift gives Chisinau a stronger position in the reintegration process, said Igor Munteanu, one of the study’s authors.

“The asymmetry has been reversed: Chisinau now dominates in terms of will, strategy and resources, while Tiraspol is merely surviving. The regime still has fear and Russian military pressure, but a model without resources cannot survive indefinitely,” Munteanu said.

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The study identifies three levels of security risks: military, hybrid and societal.

The military component includes the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF), estimated at between 1,500 and 2,500 troops, as well as local forces.

The hybrid dimension includes 11 unauthorized checkpoints in the Security Zone, while the societal component includes militarization activities involving more than 74,000 children and young people, according to figures cited in the research and human rights monitoring reports.

The authors argue that reintegration should not be conditional on the complete demilitarization of the region before the process begins. However, they say that a verifiable reduction in each category of security risk is essential.

The study also examines proposals by Moldova’s Reintegration Policy Bureau to withdraw Russian forces and military equipment under international monitoring, replace the current trilateral peacekeeping mission with an International Civilian Mission, and establish a Provisional International Administration.

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