[Op-ed by former Russian diplomat Sergei Konyashin, translated from a piece published in Russian by The Moscow Times).

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Moscow is delaying the appointment of a new ambassador to the UK after recalling the moderate career diplomat Andrei Kelin this summer. For now, this changes little: amid the collapse of relations with the West, Russian diplomacy in London has already been reduced to a shell of its former self. The more troubling question is what comes next, writes former Russian diplomat Sergei Konyashin.

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London now appears to be serving as a testing ground for a model of controlled escalation – controlled in Putin’s view – with the “West.” If the threats against UK facilities materialize or another Leipzig-style attack occurs and the UK directly accuses Russia of being involved, Moscow will formally announce a downgrade in diplomatic relations like in the case of Estonia, forcing London to respond in kind.

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At the same time, it is clear that the European wing of the Russian Foreign Ministry …has been exhausted as a reserve of diplomats for developing relations with the West. Future ambassadors there – as in many other parts of the world, it seems – will now be people with stronger formal and informal ties to other Russian government agencies. For that reason, the ambassador’s chair now standing vacant in London may not yet be the bleakest symbol of the Kremlin’s relations with the UK and the developed democratic world. The worst, I am certain, is yet to come.

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