Some interesting analysis, imv, particularly when it comes to the rise of Gen Z and the diversity within that generation. For example,
Every year, the electorate that made the old duopoly possible shrinks, and the electorate in which the Greens poll in the 30s grows. Over time, this should aid the Greens in the seats where progressive Gen Z concentrates, which is to say the inner urban seats they already contest and a widening ring of middle suburban seats with heavy renter and student populations. The generational tide is the strongest structural argument that the Greens’ long plateau eventually breaks upwards.
But even here, a qualifier is required, and it is an important one.
Gen Z is not only the most left-leaning generation in Australian history. It is also the most diverse. A very large share of this cohort are the children of migrants, or migrants themselves, and through migration alone that share will keep growing. The overseas born and second-generation component of Gen Z behaves differently from its Anglo and established counterpart. It leans left, but it leans Labor.
No, Greens voters are wide awake to what is happening. They just don’t give a shit about mediocre major party “reform” that won’t meaningfully change anything about their lives - that’s what gives Greens senators the license to block legislation. This idea that they’re somehow betraying their supporters is a Labor attack line that has little basis in reality.
The HAFF would in no way benefit me personally, nor would the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes since they will take some time to do anything, so I agree.
I also agree it wouldn’t betray their supporters, I imagine most are well off enough that these changes can be easily sacrificed for the hope of something better.
I think these are policies that are better than, actually nothing. I recognise that there are those less fortunate that they may be just enough to tip the scales for some. I don’t feel good sacrificing them because I thought it didn’t go far enough.
Well yes and no. As Kos explained in the article, The Greens voter base is a mix of older and younger educated voters. For the young cohort, who are less financially stable, it’s generally the opposite - they see hardline opposition, even at their own expense, as the only realistic path towards serious major party legislation that will actually have a positive impact on their future. People sometimes make the mistake of assuming low income voters as desperate and willing to take the first hand out they can get, but they also have nothing to lose. That mentality is also why those on the right are willing to gamble with One Nation.