On the ballot this year are 34 Senate seats. Democrats start with a disadvantage. They are defending 23 of those seats. Republicans are defending just 11.
To take over the Senate, Republicans do not need to do much. They need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House (and with it the ability to break ties), or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House.
The most likely flip. In West Virginia, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin’s retirement has opened up a seat that almost certainly will flip to Republican. (The Cook Political Report rates this likely a “Solid Republican” seat now, meaning it is nearly a sure thing that the GOP wins it.)
Everybody shamed Joe Manchin (and rightly so for holding up the green new deal), but that MF was one of the reasons the dems had 51.
There are so few progressive states that, if the dems are going to ever win the Senate and be able to confirm judges, they are going to have to hold space for progressive and moderate dems alike.
Now, there is some silver lining this year. There’s an independent in Nebraska who is neck and neck with the GOP incumbent there. This person is pro union but with some socially conservative values. If elected, he will likely vote sometimes with the dems and sometimes with the GOP, essentially being a spoiler for both, but probably to the great advantage of Nebraska.
I think this person should be celebrated and encouraged. We need more people who see country over party in politics.
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