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After the bubble pops how much would our lives be impacted?
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Would AI vanish or still be there?
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How exactly do you think the bubble will pop? Will AI companies simply run out of money? Or will it be because of the environmental effects?
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When do you think the “pop” will take place?
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After the bubble pops, in future there will be companies/people who will try the AI thing again? What will that be like?
It will if it is too expensive to generate a positive return on investment. That’s not to say that there aren’t (very) specific use cases where running an LLM makes sense, but the general use case of attempting to replace human workers with AI will likely be recognized for the pipe dream that it is. Companies are already realizing this with the AI bills coming due now, and this attitude will compound once they start having major failures and no one is still around who can fix the problems.
Are you saying that you think there is a possibility that AI technology, especially LLMs, would disappear from usage? Even as search tools? Even used locally?
Like I said above, I think there will be some very specific cases where running an LLM makes sense. Think along the lines of querying lakes of scientific data. This won’t be something of value to the average Joe or the average company. My experience with using LLMs for general search has been very hit or miss. I always end up using a general search engine, even for internal data sources.
Maybe that’s just you but millions of people are interfacing with LLMs every day as a replacement to a traditional search engine. I don’t see that changing. Either way, sounds like you are agreeing that AI will not go away entirely. That would be a silly thing to say.
It’ll also go dormant as LLMs are only one AI tech. Other AI tech will be developing while supporting infrastructure grows until we have another boom. World models for example and JEPA. That’s why Meta is pushing AI glasses. They need training data.
Those millions of people using AI for general search are currently getting it for free, which is going to end when the bubble bursts and the companies providing it go under, if not sooner when said companies try to make a profit. This is exactly what’s happening to corporate AI customers now. They are realizing there isn’t a good ROI now that OpenAI and other AI providers are being forced to charge proper costs for queries and tokens, rather than the teaser or “adoption” rates they charged before.
Interesting theory. I’d be surprised if Google started charging for their AI results. Too much free training data and they can afford to keep models running for the masses. They’re not solely an AI company. At the worst, these AI companies get swallowed up by bigger companies that can keep running even if AI is not profitable, which it is in some cases.