A materialist analysis of the Iran war

Comrades, if nothing else, you have to give credit to the American/zionist media aparatus which excels at broadcasting panic, war, and sow terror and outrage. I am sure grief, outrage, anger, and sometimes cartharsis runs high at the moment, but as materialists (and sometimes accused of being cold) we must stay rational and remember where we stand, while the media blitz sweep everyone else off their feet.

Be warned, this is going to be a text wall post, with no video or images littered therein. Lets look at things from a rational standpoint and evaluate the circumstances from a materialistic perspective.

First: death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei

Other than in the media, the passing of the Supreme Leader barely matters. The man was 86 and had a clear line of succession appointed. Operationally, he was effectively a human rubber stamp.

The role of a Supreme Leader in an old civilisation and relatively large country is never to make unilateral decisions regardless of how 'dictatorial' they are portraited to be. When a person ascend to that level of power, especially one which bares the responsibility of millions of people (assuming they are not insanely self-interested), they discard themselves and becomes an figurehead/embodiment of the policy of the political process in the country. AND its not just political, it is also cultural, religious, and administrative process that must be sufficiently sophisticated, otherwise a nation like this would have dissolved without external interference.

Without delving into an explanation of the concept of martyrdom and the significance of the concept in the Islamic faith, suffice to say, the death of Khamenei would have severed and completely killed any potential of the next leader being a US allied one, even if Iran was the most atheist/secular state in the world. There can be no legitimacy to a leader which betrays the martyrdom of Khamenei, and any attempt to do so would immediately cause the public to rise up against them. There is nothing better than martyring him that would cement his legacy as someone who has given their life to the cause of Iranian sovereignty... free from zionism and America.

Second: global impact of the closure of strait of Hormuz

Aside from the obvious ‘missiles landing and exploding’, the other most obvious risk to any potential regional war in the middle east is the impact on oil and gas (energy) supply. There are two major risk which lies herein. A shortage causing the inability to obtain oil where it is needed, and a spike in prices, and the second risk being a general push in inflation due to rising cost of energy.

The first risk affects disproportionally countries that is a net importer of oil and have no real substitutes. The first point of concern in the global economy is China. However, as a point of structural organisation, the Chinese oil supply is the most diversified and most robust out of all other developing or developed nations, except those who are self-sufficient (like Russia). China does not import more than 20% of its oil from any source, and has about 11 sources at 5% or higher. They also have a strategic reserve storage facility in the scale of multi-billion barrels. It is so massive that they have influenced oil prices by manipulating the reserve’s intake and outflow, while not being in OPEC+ from the demand side. Those who will be seriously impacted by the shortage of oil will be countries that share the following characteristics:

· industry is not competitive if oil price increase thus it makes no sense to buy oil at higher price if continued production at higher cost generates lower, or no profit

· relies heavily on the middle east as its predominant source of oil

· has no trade surplus or reserve of currency to bid on the oil market

· has no working relationship with alternative sources of oil (pipe lines or geopolitical hostility).

From this angle, the country that will take the biggest loss in the event of a huge contraction of oil supply will be, not in any particular order, the Europeans (but especially Germany, they only need about 15% crude, but refined products reliance is much higher), the Japanese (93% oil from the middle east), South Korea (70%ish), and India (55% ish).

The second risk of a general energy cost pushed inflation on the various economies. Again, China is positioned well to handle this. Other than their deflationary market begging for some inflationary pressures, they are almost always the most competitive and biggest production centre. I.E, there is no one who can out compete China if everyone has to pay more for oil, and there is not enough alternative markets to source goods if Chinese goods become expensive. They are also the biggest beneficiary of cheap sanctioned oil from Russia, which will actually give them a competitive advantage compared to the rest of the world.

Countries that will be most vulnerable to energy cost pushed inflation share the following characteristics:

· economies that have very tight monetary policy and cannot afford to increase interest rates if inflation hits

· economies that is somewhat competitive but on the edge of being not competitive if energy prices increase

· economies with weak currency and energy prices rising will be compounded with a export of domestic currency multiplied by weak exchange rate

From this angle, the biggest losers are again: Japan (fits all three characteristics), Turkey (can be found next to the dictionary definition of currency crisis), India (slow adoption of diversifying energy, and currency issues). The most interesting loser in this part of the equation is America, mostly because the phenomenon known as ‘Fiscal Dominance’, where the budget deficit and debt is so big, that monetary policy is effectively ‘locked in’. Because any increase in interest rates to combat inflation would immediately cause the interest payments to sky rocket in the billions. Right now, if FED increased interest rates by 1%, the budget deficit would increase by about 1 billion per day (and they are already running a 1.9 trillion annual deficit, with a 38.5 trillion debt). If FED lowered rates or let inflation run wild, it would effectively depreciate the value of the currency and wealth of the top 1%, while pushing cost of living into unsustainable levels where it could lead to social instability (imagine if America had double digit inflation on top of what already had happened in the last 4 years). Powell stood firm against Trump for this reason, and we do not know if the new guy can.

Third: What is the Iranian strategy

What is the Iranian strategy? This is where I move into speculation. First and foremost, we must identify what Iran cannot feasibly do in this political climate, and that is only one thing: show weakness. If Iran hinted at return to negotiations, or attempted to orchestrate a token retaliation strike for an off-ramp, the Zionists would sense blood in the water and reconverge for the kill. It is important that Iran demonstrate no ambiguity, no room for doubt, and double down on this war such that the Zionists and Americans have no wishful thinking that Iran could be placated.

It is now reported that the Ayatollah choose to remain in his residence immediately prior to his martyrdom. It appears that he himself understood that if Iran was to retaliate and escalate, Iran needs a solid political rallying effect and international recognised cause. His passing and the murder of the head of state and head of a religion is significant enough such that Iranian action, regardless of how destructive, if aimed at the Zionists and Americans, can be considered ‘proportionate’.

Based on the fact that Iran immediately retaliated (within 20-35 minutes) from the first strikes, and the retaliation is against numerous targets. We can only presume that they had an action response plan put in place and all these targets are pre-approved in those plans in the event something happened. It means you can effectively dump any notion that Iran is just ‘lashing out’ in pain in some sort of panicked or angry retaliation.

In order to understand the Iranian strategy, we must first understand the goals of the aggressors and presume Iran is out to prevent those goals. Firstly, the Zionists wants regime change in Iran, sensing the tide of public opinion turning on them, it is probably the last chance they could do this in several decades (see Trump’s speech). Secondly, the Trumpet wants a geopolitical win, a quick, cheap, decisive win like Maduro. Not substantive win, just enough to posture to his base. From this perspective, in the short term (read as days to 2 weeks), Iranian retaliation must achieve the following goal:

· Maintain functionality. No regime change, no instability, no weakness, no ambiguity. Zionist has failed unless they double down.

· Not give Trump a domestic political ‘win’. This means that it must be costly to Trump politically, and there are only three things that will seriously damage him. Firstly, dead soldiers and crying families over a Zionist war. Secondly, video or photographs of American assets being destroyed or made a fool out of. Lastly, any mention or implementation of the notion of ‘Boots on the Ground’. The first two has already happened.

· Iterate to all Gulf Arab States that when they needed the most, Americans will abandon them in favour of the Zionists. This is done when Iran struck all bases in the region and heavily iterated on the fact that Zionists were the most heavily protected, while their assets are left out to dry. America has no capacity to provide security guarantee. This has also already happened, especially with the Saudis. While Gaza is fresh in the mind of the public in these states, their political leadership cannot, if they wish to maintain legitimacy, openly side with the Zionists and Americans and go to war with Iran (especially considering they have no certainty of victory given America is unwilling to protect them).

· Pierce the myth of American military omnipotence. Signal to all other dogs of empire that America which once could be in and out of Iraq in a few weeks is now unwilling to commit troops, and unable to subjugate Iran. Their jets are not invincible, their iron dome is not impregnable, and their soldiers are not seven feet tall.

In the long term, Iranian strategy will hinge on geopolitical situation but is hinged on the following:

· Wage an attrition war against America by attacking that which America must defend (i.e Zionist entity). There are three big theatres that America must maintain across the globe, the pacific against China, eastern Europe against Russia, and middle east in favour of Zionists. They are spinning a lot of plates at the same time. Plates that they could spin with some bluffing and media propaganda during peace time. After Ukraine and now Iran, America would seriously have to put more effort into spinning these plates lest they all fall down. This means Iran is forcing America to choose, because he who defends everything, defends nothing. Iran is also betting on America will choose the Zionists over Europe and the Asian puppets (Japan, Philippines, etc). American navy is already diverting air defence from South Korea to the middle east, and the stock piles are running dry. Iran is weakening American grasp everywhere else on the presumption that they do not have to survive until they defeat America, but only until America is defeated somewhere (like Ukraine, if the weaponry runs dry and Putin force a settlement).

· Make everyone feel pain, economically. Iran escalating the matter to a regional war, by closing Hormuz and can still escalate by threatening oil production, Iran is effectively placing the world on notice that they could single handed jeopardise economic growth for 2026 if not also 2027. As a response to a pre-emptive strike, Iran is also forcing the west to out themselves as hypocrites if they side with the empire, or to take a neutral stance but pressured to end this war. No one is in doubt across the world who started this war, and for what reason the global economy is suffering. In addition to the economic analysis above, this is what sinks entire presidencies.

· Force escalation from Zionists and America. This is the riskiest part of the Iranian strategy because they do not have escalatory dominance. There are more resources and potential nuclear weapons that Zionists could bring to bear, and Iran is banking on them recognising that if they elected to go with the Samson option, they would also invite the other nuclear powers to directly intervene (most relevant of which is Pakistan, China, Russia, and even America). It is calling a bluff with a weak hand, and effectively using the threat of WW3 or general nuclear exchange to compel action from America to leash their dog.

Long term is difficult to examine, but the short-term strategy is already working. Iran is on their 11th(?) wave of missile strikes and Trump’s ambitions for mid-terms are already out of the window while the admin shifts to damage control mode. As each side up their ante, Iran is either making their final stand against Zionism in the middle east, or working towards their true liberation.

The future for Iran and the global resistance is dark and full of turmoil when the empire struggles to stay alive, but take heart in the fact that the resistance to the empire never had the privilege of being impulsive and act on bravado. Every action had to be calculated and methodical, each life is important despite their passing, and this time is no different.

The Zionists and America had no issues maintaining their politics in covet operations, propaganda campaigns, soft power, bribery, etc. They are resorting to violence with high risk not because they are willing, but because it’s their last resort. From the 228 incident of the KMT in China, the Black Friday of the Shah mere month before the Iranian revolution, the state of emergency of apartheid south Africa, the Russian monarchists in 1917, and the French OAS in the 1970s. Every political structure/movement, when fading, will resort to violence and white terror immediately prior to their demise, and Americo-zionism will be no different.

It is always the darkest before the dawn. As the darkness descends and beasts howl around the world, do not fear, hold firm with your comrade and have faith in that no night have ever been able to forestall the coming of dawn.