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  • like how is this not the onion

  • anybody who bombs brown people is automatically an ally of Canada

  • Basically, I think that's how I'm reading it too. Trying to disrupt China's oil imports almost certainly appears to be part of the plan, but naturally it only forces both China and Russia to cooperate more creating a nightmare scenario for the US. And of course, the countries that get hurt the most are US vassals in Europe, Japan, and occupied Korea. All of them were hugely dependent on oil and LNG shipments going through the Strait of Hormuz, which are now cut off. China will be fine, US aligned countries, not so much.

  • Yeah, next few weeks will be interesting to watch for sure. It does look like Iran has escalatory dominance here.

  • That seems like the most likely outcome unfortunately. The left completely shat the bed by aligning with the libs on the war, while the right positioned itself as being anti war from the start. Now that it's becoming clear what a debacle it was, people are flocking to the right because they're the only ones openly talking about the fact that Ukraine is the reason European economy is collapsing.

  • lol yup

  • This feels exactly like Ukraine to me where they just assumed that Russian economy would collapse under sanctions and had no plan B. Seems like they just assumed that Iran was internally unstable, and doing decapitations would make it fall apart. When that didn't happen, they had no clue what to do next.

  • The really big question is how big US rare earths stockpiles are. Now that China has cut them off, once they run through that, then producing drones, missiles, or any electronics in general, is going to become a bit of a problem.

  • I can't imagine that Trump actually understands the concept.

  • I generally agree with the take. Iran is well prepared, it's not going to collapse quickly, and their strategy has to be to push the US out of the region. The one thing I'd add is that there's a good chance of uprisings happening across the region, as we might be seeing in Bahrain already. Hezbollah has joined the war already, it's likely Yemen will soon too. Then there's Iraq, which has many Iran allied militias.

    While everybody is focused on the missile war, there's a broader context being ignored here which is that the US is seen as an occupier in the region. The regimes aligned with the US are deeply unpopular with their populace. The war is seen as a war between zionists and Iran. Any regime that end up fighting against Iran finds itself on the side of the US and Israel, and after what people watched in Gaza for over a year now, I don't think that's going to play well. Not to mention martyrdom of Khamenei which will help rally people to the cause.

    Now that Iran has bloodied the US, people see that the monster can be made to bleed. And framing it in terms of expelling the empire is the best approach the Iran could take here in my opinion.

  • don't worry, it'll come to him in a dream

  • They've been preparing for this for years, and estimates are they produce hundreds of missiles a month, and their drone production is distributed which makes it hard to take out. Once the US runs through their interceptor stocks, then Iran can start really going to town.

  • easy peasy

  • O7

  • No, Russia didn't recognize them switching it on the fly.

  • Technically, they never touched vessels registered in Russia, just ones under flags of other countries that ferry Russian oil.

  • that describes the US fairly accurately as a country right now

  • Thanks, and yeah, everything that we're seeing today traces directly back to February of 2022. That was the moment when the limits of western power were exposed, and that set an irreversible chain of events into motion. There's no going back now to the way things were before. And I think the key part is that the process is self reinforcing, the more grip the US loses on the world, the harder it becomes to dominate the remaining vassals.

  • I imagine there is a limit to how much propaganda people can swallow, especially when their standard of living continues to decline.