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  • Hormuz is closed to the Epstein coalition

  • Yeah, we it tends to be used more on the right to describe western hegemony since they don't want to call it what it is.

  • I mean did you read the Epstein files?

  • I think 140 is very realistic. The reality is that the US has no way to prevent Iran from closing the strait. There's a reason all the carrier groups are hanging out far away from Iranian shores, and sorties into Iran are being done from ground bases right now. But let's for a moment assume that the US was capable of doing escorts through the strait. That oil would worth more than gold by the time it got through. Just imagine the number of interceptors they'd have to use up on each pass, with every one costing millions. There's simply no economically viable way to do this.

  • What we're seeing in Iran is even more significant than Ukraine where it was still a proxy war and the west could pretend that Russia wasn't defeating NATO. Now, Iran is going directly head to head with the hegemon, and the hegemon is bleeding. They can delay reporting, and cover it up for a while, but it's going to be impossible to keep avoid the fact that US can't defeat Iran in the long run.

  • I really love the quote how an egg broken from the outside is food, but one broken from the inside is life. It's such a perfect allegory for why values cannot be imposed from the outside.

  • I'm guessing enough that they won't be able to replace them easily

  • The funny part is that the US isn't directly affected by this because they don't really import much energy from the region. Their vassals in Europe, Korea, and Japan are the ones who are getting fucked right now. But, I do think there are going to be knock on effects for the US as a result. As G7 economies tank, that's necessarily going to affect US markets as well.

  • I've been doing software dev for over two decades now. These tools absolutely do work, and they can save you a lot of time. The reality is that these tools are still very new, and people are learning how to use them effectively. They're not magic, and you don't just type a prompt and get a working program. You have to spend the time to actually learn how to use them effectively. Most people haven't actually done that, especially the ones that complain about them most incessantly. I've seen this happen a lot personally. Where people don't want these tools to work. They try them, and then when they don't magically do what they want use that as proof that they don't work.

    Basing the argument on these tools producing buggy code, not being effective, and not saving time, is just building a straw man. There are plenty of good arguments for organizing that are rooted in reality. There's no need to invent fake arguments here.

  • The US government does actually maintain a two tiered system of stockpiles for rare earths and other critical minerals though the exact inventory size is not published, with one being a defense stockpile and a new larger commercial reserve just announced in february this year. The existing defense stockpile is managed by the defense logistics agency and exists solely to supply the military industrial and essential civilian needs during a national emergency. Supposedly it is a relatively small stockpile containing 37 different materials valued at approximately 1.15 billion dollars, which for context is about one tenth the value of the newly proposed commercial reserve. The new commercial reserve is a 12 billion dollar project funded by a 10 billion dollar loan from the us export import bank and about 2 billion dollars in private capital. This reserve will initially aim to hold a 60 day supply of critical minerals and will include any of the more than 50 minerals, but its structure and inventory details are still being finalized. To sum up, there is some reserve, but not much.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/2/2/what-is-the-us-strategic-minerals-stockpile

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-stockpile-critical-minerals-reserve-project-vault.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/02/03/rare-earths-stocks-trump-critical-minerals-stockpile-project-vault.html

  • oh yeah this is just the start

  • I mean if you know about it ahead of time, you are well positioned to make money hand over fist. It's not like he has to worry about reelection here.

  • but drunk war bro in charge of the Pentagon said it, so must be true

  • It's normal for people to adopt mainstream views of their society as the default, that's what makes it mainstream. It takes events like Gaza for people to start questioning those views. Glad you found your way out of the maze. :)

  • It's absolutely hilarious how they've been doing this for four years in Ukraine, and are now acting shocked that Russia is doing it back to them.

  • sounds exactly like the kind of plan war bro hegseth would approve

  • They don't really have the numbers, but also imagine being dumb enough to fall for it right after the US left kurds in Syria out to dry.

  • Exactly, every little bit helps. Every time people start to question the narrative even a tiny bit, it makes them more open to considering other views. And shit like invasion of Iran or the genocide in Gaza creates a powerful context where a lot of people start wondering how these things can be happening.

  • it's noteworthy that he's just saying it out loud