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whyrat

@ whyrat @lemmy.world

Posts
3
Comments
99
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • Deleted

    Permanently Deleted

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  • Because somehow trump wrecking the economy isn't scoffing the working class? This argument starts disjointed from reality then presents a false dichotomy. trump's administration & policies are a dumpster fire! How is opposing this a dilemma in any meaningful way?

  • How can you oppose tariffs, while supporting a hardline against China on Taiwan?

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  • My facts were provided and cited? I'd argue your positions are the ones not related to the facts:

    aerospace and military manufacturers are saying there are certain components they simply can’t manufacture here without importing from China

    This is a media statement, not a fact, and not reflected in industry data nor historical examples. There's a cost they don't want to pay, not a hard block. Manufacturing has historically been more than able to adjust, but at a cost. In the event of a war we'd likely pay that cost, in the face of tariffs it's up to those individual manufacturers to decide. So we might see them choose to keep importing instead of replacing certain components... But that does not then mean they couldn't do so.

    I don’t understand how you have maintained this perspective of interruptions and shipping affecting the US more than China

    I didn't claim this at all? And I won't argue it as relevant since interrupting shipping globally is not a relevant equivalent to bilateral trade halting.

    I don't feel like you're making arguments in good faith, or you are disregarding my claims and raising straw man arguments... Apologies in advance as I'll likely not continue this thread.

  • How can you oppose tariffs, while supporting a hardline against China on Taiwan?

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  • US manufacturing output is far larger than the amount we import form China.

    US manufacturing made about $2.5 Trillion in 2021: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output

    US imported from China about $0.5 Trillion in 2021 (all goods, not just manufacturing): https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

    China could defeat most western countries without firing a single shot, just by cutting off their access to Chinese exports.

    I disagree with this assumption!

    We don't rely on China, we benefit from trading with them. Some of our goods go there, we get some of their goods. If a war breaks out and that trade stops; we have plenty of manufacturing capacity. And the point of having allies is that we would expect assistance in the event of a war, so we don't expect US manufacturing to even completely fill the gap (similarly our allies would expect the US to help if China were to target one of them... except that the current administration is alienating everyone but Russia...).

    If you look another level down into what each country manufactures; the US makes a lot of military equipment, and imports a lot of consumer goods form China. Our military would not lose much capacity by a loss in trade with China, but US consumers would lose some of their consumption options. Guess which one matters when it comes to war?

    I don't support tariffs as a tool to increase American manufacturing jobs because they don't accomplish that goal. This is not a political belief; it's derived from evidence. Many sources available, here's one: https://files.taxfoundation.org/20180627113002/Tax-Foundation-FF595-1.pdf

    Using tariffs as a diplomatic tool is only effective in extreme cases. Diplomacy is difficult and so many things are interrelated. If a tariff threat makes China capitulate to our position on Taiwan, why not just use a tariff threat to bring China completely into line on every other position? Tariffs are blunt, and cause harm (economic and diplomatic) to broad areas of both countries unrelated to the specific issue. Topical example: sanctions on Russia did not change their position on Ukraine, even though those were far more severe than just a blanket X% tariff and were supported by many other countries (multi-lateral as opposed to uni-lateral). If we want to influence China's position on Taiwan, diplomacy is more effective than tariffs.

  • Mapo tofu with spätzle and roasted broccoli... "Fusion"?

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  • I didn't know the difference, thanks for the clarification!

  • Mapo tofu with spätzle and roasted broccoli... "Fusion"?

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  • For anyone wondering: tasted very similar to mapo tofu and rice. Texture was noticably different but still pleasant.

    My son asked for mapo tofu, but my daughter doesn't like mapo tofu and wanted noodles... And I didn't want to cook both rice and noodles 🤷‍♂️

  • US could default on debt as soon as July

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  • Adding further onto your point emphasizing why this will be severe: Borrowing will become more expensive, and we can't just stop spending to stop borrowing. Much of the current debt is in short term positions that regularly get re-issued. The cost of issuing new short term debts just to replace the current ones coming due will increase even if spending stays the same (or decreases).

    And of course, there's a huge impact to the dollar's value internationally if major financial markets shift away from holding US debt. You know the trade deficit Republicans like to rage about .... Yeah, it'll get a lot worse when fewer people want to hold US dollars for the purpose of investing in US bonds.

  • Trump abruptly walks back his directive to fire thousands of federal employees

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  • Imagine the loss in productivity from having so many people fired & quickly re-hired. Not just from those people; but the HR & administrative effort; the re-org of responsibilities among the other employees; and the nonsense time it probably took up in so many "mandatory departmental meetings" discussing what was happening...

  • I feel my life is empty. Is there any way to stop this?

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  • The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up. -Mark Twain

  • US inflation unexpectedly increases

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  • Every Republican presidential term in my lifetime has had a recession start. None of the Democratic ones have...

    Regan; one started each term. First Bush had one in his term. Clinton had none in his 2 terms. Second Bush had a HUGE one each time (dot com and great recession). Obama had none in his 2 terms. trump had one in his first term (triggered by covid & shutdowns; which his (in)actions intensified...). Biden didn't have one (but; just barely... and only by the official definition [NBER]; he did have two negative real GDP quarters, so one could argue this point). Now we're starting trump's second term, so we'll see (it's pretty clear we'll have a recession within 2 years).

    This isn't really debatable unless you ignore the evidence. Stock market and real GDP growth are overall way higher under Democrat presidents. One link for reference (but many more are available): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-021-00912-y

  • Speaking honestly, what has to happen for you personally to take to the street in protest of the trump administration?

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  • I've been to protests; and I've volunteered for political campaigns. The second actually flipped a (US House) seat from red to blue (obviously the work of many people; I'm not thinking I was the deciding factor but it was a close election). The first left me with a pink hat and no noticeable change in how elected leaders acted.

    I need to be convinced the protest will achieve measurable changes; otherwise I'll spend my time looking for the upcoming elections where there are close enough margins to feel my actions make a difference.

  • "Trump is trying to collapse our economy": War on "woke" revealed as a war on all Americans

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  • The party who's caused a recession every presidential term they've held power in my lifetime... Might cause a recession this time too!?!?

    Try to kick the football again Charlie Brown 🤷‍♂️

  • What's the deal with male loneliness?

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  • Yes, if this is an issue you have: you should start taking steps to address it!

    There are a number of online services to get you started, or see a therapist for personalized help from a professional. Mental health issues are real, but can be addressed with the right treatments. They won't likely go away on their own, you'll need to find the right strategies that work for you and then put in the effort & time to address it.

  • Show these trumpers what a failing economy looks like.

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  • Tariffs that went on long enough would force manufacturing to be done in the US. And wages would have to rise

    When the tariff is on final consumer products, these are two opposing forces. Higher wages mean companies would more likely save money by paying the tariffs. Higher tariffs mean companies are more likely to purchase domestically.

    But if the tariffs are on precursor products (e.g. steel, lumber, oil, etc ...) rather than final consumer goods: the tariffs make it more expensive for domestic manufacturing. The US manufacturer has to pay the tariffs to use the materials they need to produce their final product, and have to pass those costs on. That means there's less margin for wages.

  • Show these trumpers what a failing economy looks like.

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  • There's been a recession start in every single republican presidential term of my life. I'm over 40. Each of Reagan's terms. HW Bush. Each of the second Bush (these were the worst, dot-com crash and the great recession starting in 2007/8). And then the great Covid bungling. As you point out: if they implement their agenda it's likely to happen again.

    There has never been a recession start during a democratic president in my lifetime (although Biden's term came close).

    The opposition needs to be ready to jump on this and yell from the figurative rooftops so conservatives can't spin it away. And it needs to be most heavily broadcast where the electorate shifted to the right this election. The fact that people generally think republicans are better for the economy is a severe failure on the part of the democrats.

  • Poll: Harris has massive lead among swing state college students

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  • Hopefully they actually vote.

  • Trump says he will not run again if he loses November presidential election

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  • I feel like we heard this same sentiment 4 years ago, and yet here we are.

  • Let Your Food Stick | Techniquely with Lan Lam

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  • I enjoy her series; as well as the "What's Eating Dan" one. The regular ATK show is okay; it's still quality content, but the delivery feels too fake for me.

  • Tariffs Backfire as China Outmaneuvers Rivals with Global EV Investments

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  • Why protect a home industry that won't make the type of product I want? I don't want a giant electric SUV, eHummer, Ford Lightning truck, or whatever; I want a small electric car. The models that would compete with BYD are often being discontinued by domestic producers...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt

    https://www.slashgear.com/1604210/why-bmw-i3-discontinued-what-happened/

    There's still the Nissan Leaf I guess? And the ever-present promise of a cheap compact EV "coming soon" from many producers.

  • internal certificate distribution?

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  • Use a secret manager?

    Cert is a secret, add a small agent to your containers that pings your secret manager and gets back the current cert. Then saves / imports it (or whatever is appropriate).