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thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]

@ thethirdgracchi @hexbear.net

Posts
2
Comments
560
Joined
6 yr. ago

ἐγὼ τὸ μὲν δὴ πανταχοῦ θρυλούμενον κράτιστον εἶναι φημὶ μὴ φῦναι βροτῷ·

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • State budget only matters insofar as imports are concerned; that's all they need oil revenue for. Otherwise, they're still sovereign and in control of their own currency. The state still functions how they will. Venezuela is self-sufficient in food (per here), vastly expanding their generic drug production (from ~75% imports in 2016 to less than 45% in 2025 (per here and here), and local communes still provided vast amounts of state services. Venezuela will be going through a tough period (as it has for the past decade) but it is not the end of the world, nor has the revolution been defeated, and nor does the United States exhibit anything close to "total control" tantamount to colonising Venezuela.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • I agree with you that this is bad, I'm not trying to claim it's not a serious defeat for the revolution. The United States has got a serious victory here for sure, I'm just pushing back on the idea that this is total control or it's some kind of colonial relationship akin to the many that have existed throughout history. It is different, and the Venezuelan state has far more room to maneuver than you seem to be making it out to be.

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  • Oil revenues are not the entirety of the Venezuela state budget (per here, roughly 50% which is obviously still insanely high) so can't be "total control." Again, it's obviously not good, but if somebody steals your shit and you lack the ability to get it back, does trying to work within the bounds of that reality rather than just being delusion and fighting to get your shit back, even though you know you can't, mean you're being a "comprador" with the thief? Venezuela isn't "giving up" anything. The United States has stolen their oil, and will continue to steal their oil. Might as well try to work within those bounds than just throw your hands up and get nothing.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 9th to February 15th, 2026 - The Return of the Special Period - COTW: Cuba

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  • I think you and I have very different ideas of "total control." Releasing some political prisoners isn't so big a concession given the alternative, and stopping all trade to Cuba is more of a recognition of reality (the US fleet stationed off their coast would just sieze any boats) than some massive concession. Yes it's not good and a defeat, but it does not mean the United States has "total control" over Venezuela. As long as the comunes are not being dismantled and the operations of the Venezuela state continue to benefit the people of Venezuela, I don't see how this is total defeat with total control. You're essentially agreeing with Trump and co when they announced that they now have total control over Venezeula after kidnapping Maduro, which is mostly just kayfabe.

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  • You're right that it doesn't need guys on the ground, but just stealing somebody's resources isn't enough to mean it's colonialism. What "institutional control" are the Americans demostrating here? There's no "trade imbalances" or even "financial instruments" other than sanctions, and sanctions does not a colonialism make, unless you wanna claim that Russia and Iran and Cuba are also "colonised" by the United States because they're under US sanction. The EU stole Russia's central bank deposits by force. Does that mean Russia is a European colony?

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  • All theft is via force, whether that be implicit or explicit. Colonialism is more nuanced and historically contingent than just theft, else basically every relationship between states throughout all history could in some form be described as "colonial," in which case the word loses all meaning. There's an aspect of control (whether that is over land, people, etc) and theories of racial superiority that make colonialism different. There's also usually the idea of some kind of civilising mission, which in this case is entirely absent. I don't think it's accurate to describe colonialism as just "theft via force."

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  • The United States has no "guys" on the ground, they don't control Venezuela's policies, they're not shaping Venezuela as a colony of a metropole, they have no mechanism by which to determine the administrative decisions of the Venezuelan government other than naked force. It's more like an imperial relationship, where the oil is tribute. Calling it colonialism is like saying the Liao made the Song into a "colony" because the Song agreed to pay the Liao thousands of silk bolts every year not to raid them. Venezuela is giving oil as tribute to an imperial overlord, and that overlord is then selling that oil to Israel, and Venezuela is doing this so that imperial overlord doesn't fuck them up further. That's not a colonial relationship.

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  • It's full on colonialism.

    This actually isn't colonialism. It's theft, it's might makes right imperialism and coercion, but it's not colonialism. Taking another country's resources by gunpoint is not a colonial endeavor.

  • Becoming Chinese

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  • China, for over two thousand years, has acted sort of like a cultural SCP, absorbing more and more of the globe because people recognize Being Chinese as a set of culutral norms is actually really good. This is just furthering that trend. Chinese isn't a race, it's a way of life. The book Chinese Cosmopolitanism by Shuchen Xiang covers this process well.

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    Now that’s art

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  • The only people calling the bluff are China, but they're only calling the bluff in relation to China unfortunately (as is expected).

  • outlawing pedestrians

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  • I mean they already did in 1994. It wasn't that much of a shitshow.

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  • There is always a chance, yes. Especially if Taiwan or the United States make any concrete moves against the One China policy. The PRC is mostly content with the status quo regarding Taiwan, but if the status quo changes (which seems to have in recent months!) that likelihood goes up.

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  • I don't know if the United States has the appetite for large scale strikes for weeks or even months, especially given their self imposed deadline of 2027 for Chinese action in Taiwan. If they commit to strikes for months, they wouldn't be able to respond to a Chinese invasion. The empire is stretched thin, unless they've already given up re: Taiwan. To say nothing of public opinion, because a long war with Iran is going to get a lot of Americans killed.

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  • Ah fair enough, I see what you're saying. Yeah Germany can really only do this in the context of the EU. Read an article recently, I think in FT, that Rheinmetall is basically being elevated by the German state as the European arms contractor because they keep just feeding it contracts, much to the chagrin of the French and Swedes, because they're using some EU loophole where bevause it's "strategic" they don't have to get EU approval or whatever. Demonstrates the point though that, as you said, Rheinmetall (and German arms more broadly) can only get so big because they can make weapons for all of the EU.

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  • If Germany (and the EU more broadly) wants to break with American hegemony they can. Their economies are still massive, and if they let go of neoliberal brainworms they can reorient around state spending and decouple from the United States. They won't, but the reasons Germany won't be able to rearm are more ideological than material. Germany is the third largest economy on Earth, and that comes from industrial output rather than financial services or real estate scams.

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  • Here's the archive link: https://archive.is/urTwK

    People in Europe have largely been happy to see Berlin rebuild its military to defend against Russia. But they should be careful what they wish for. Today’s Germany has pledged to use its outsize armed power to help all of Europe. But left unchecked, German military dominance might eventually foster divisions within the continent. France remains uneasy about the fact that its neighbor is becoming a major military power—as are many people in Poland, despite Sikorski’s sentiments. As Berlin ascends, suspicion and mistrust could grow. In the worst-case scenario, competition might return. France, Poland, and other states could attempt to counterbalance Germany, which would divert attention away from Russia and leave Europe divided and vulnerable. France, in particular, may seek to reassert itself as the continent’s leading military power and “grande nation.” This could prompt outright rivalry with Berlin and place Europe at odds with itself.

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  • I mean at this point it's pretty obvious, no? Have we ever seen deployments like this without the empire carrying out a strike? Basically telegraphed, and anybody in Iran still clinging to so-called «negotiations» is kidding themselves. The Americans don't move basically their entire C-17 Globemaster III fleet without intending to strike.

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    Bulletins and International News Discussion from February 2nd to February 8th, 2026 - The European Satrapies Are Revolting

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  • What the hell is up with the lighting in that dinner? There's no windows. There's barely any light to even see the food, and the light there is there is like torture chamber lighting.