OK so my analysis is correct. As the US has proven they are unable to use anything other than the stick since the end of the end of the cold war, this will end up into invasions or coup attempts because they have no reason to stop from aligning with China given their current material conditions.
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I haven't seen a lot of news regarding what is currently going on in France. I can do a more in depth dive if people are interested, but basically the neolib/fascist alliance currently in government is trying to pass yet another enormous austerity budget along with islamophobic laws. The most prominent far right party in France (National front) who was allowing the neolib to rule as long as they played ball with their racist agenda has said they will vote against the prime minister (They cannot afford to lose part of their white poor base as this part of their base is strongly opposed to the austerity .budget)
A popular movement has emerged with a call to a national strike starting on 10.09. Unions are starting to get behind it and Mélenchon from France Unbowed (radical left and biggest left party in France ~15-25% of the electorate depending on who you ask) has also come in support of the movement and called for a national strike.
At the same time Bayrou the prime minister will probably be ousted on the 8.09 on a vote of noconfidence.