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  • The Cuban middle crisis was resolved through negotiation and concessions, not by a game of nuclear chicken.

  • Exactly. The real debate is on which parts should be off limits.

    Most people can think of some speech that they consider so horrible that nobody should be allowed to say it.

    People often try to hedge that position by arguing that they're not even really infringing on anyone's speech because their form of restriction doesn't meet a sufficient threshold of censorship.

  • Does anyone?

    The closest I can think of to “real free speech absolutists” is the old-school doctrinal libertarians. Even they have limits on what they believe should be allowed and specifically state that contracts should be legally enforceable.

  • As a joke, I once asked an LLM to produce a review of Top Gun that argued that it was actually a trans allegory. It made terrible arguments but it did produce words that technically met that requirement. (It included some kind of hilarious lines about the satirical use of hypermasculinity)

    I imagine an argument that “Amerika is a love song” would look similar.

  • Rammstein released “Amerika” in 2004. That was during the 1st Bush Jr administration but the complaints in the song aren’t limited to Republicans.

  • We could keep going; pankration, hoplidromos...

    There's a whole section of the Aeneid that talks about their impromptu sporting matches (the description of the boxing gauntlets is particularly spicy).

    "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" has multiple instances where generals arrange for games among their troops.

  • It's almost as if a huge number of sports evolved from military training...

  • I don't know if any of your predictions are true. They might be, but I don't have nearly enough evidence to be confident in any of them.

    If they are, I don't see how the complete collapse of Russia is even remotely feasible. Those predictions add up to saying that none of the necessary pre-conditions have been or will be met. Together, they say that we have no way to coerce Russia into the desired state and we have no way to re-align their interest to get them to do so voluntarily.

    China definitely won't swoop in to defend Ukraine against Russia. I think we can agree on that. It's pretty clear the US won't either. I think we can agree on that too.

    That's why I'm wondering if you think the EU can get big enough to do so on it's own, and do so quickly.

  • I can see why this would be a good outcome for Europe.

    It essentially turns Russia into a puppet state. If we were to eliminate China and the US, that would make Russia Europe's puppet state. While it has some obvious advantages to Europe, it's clearly not in the interest of either Putin or Russia (the most pessimistic estimates put his approval rating at over 60% among Russians).

    Since it's obviously not to their advantage they won't agree to it. That means someone would have to force them to accept that new status quo. The US just dropped all support and China has made it pretty clear that they're not going to participate in any operation like that either.

    So that leaves the EU. I'll circle back to my earlier question. Do you think the EU is ready to adopt and ratify a constitution if it came up again? Absent that, do you think the EU can put together a military coalition that's big enough and permanent enough to induce an immediate surrender by Russia? If not, do you think that the EU is willing and able to wage a protracted direct war against Russia?

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irn-Bru

    lol

    "Originally selling it as Iron Brew, the drink's makers, A.G. Barr, were forced to change the name of the drink in 1946 following a change in the law that stipulated that the marketing of products be "literally true". As the drink did not contain much iron, nor was it brewed"

    "The brand also has its own tartan"

  • What would be the best way for that to happen? More specifically, how can we pull this off safely?

    We have very little historical precedent to go on. The USSR collapsed in 1991. There was some nervousness around what was going to happen with all their nukes. Ultimately, we ended up with Russia, led by Putin.

    How would we stop Putin from triggering nuclear retaliation?If we stop that, how do we make sure some other oligarch doesn't immediately take his place?If Russia were to completely collapse, what would happen to Russia? Would we be willing to let China take over? If not would we be willing to maintain an indefinite occupation of Russia?

    There may be good answers to all of these questions. It seems the more practical solution is to contain Russia. Do you think the EU would be ready to adopt a constitution if it came up again?

  • I'm not aware of any major predictions he's gotten wrong. As near as I can tell, he's very focused on ex-post analysis.

    Ukraine is still in the fight but it's clearly loosing. Ukraine is still rich in subjective resources like "spirit" and "determination". When it comes to hard metrics the picture is pretty bleak; casualties, ground gained, artillery production, depth of reserves...

    The "we" wasn't a quote by Colonel Reisener. I did put it in quotation marks but I thought it would be clear from the vocabulary that I was paraphrasing him. I'm sure you already know that Austria is constitutionally obligated to remain neutral. While Austria is barred from providing military assistance it has participated in sanctions and provided humanitarian assistance. That's earned Austria a spot on Russia's official Unfriendly Countries List https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfriendly_countries_list

    I try to keep a more complete set of facts in mind when assessing the reliability of sources.

  • He has a lot of videos like that. One of them is him in a room full of cadets. He goes through all the drone innovations that the Russian and Ukrainians have made in the past year and passes around a (disarmed) working €321 drone.

    Then he points out that Austria still has the same expensive drone they had years ago and tells the cadets they should be a bit stressed about that.

  • I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.

    https://youtu.be/IDRjughhXMg

    He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.

    If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."

  • Wasn’t she picked to replace a white guy with a cock because it was obvious to everyone that he wasn’t gonna be president?

  • As a multi-national, multi-ethnic, mutt, I am too.

    Given that part of my mutt-makeup is Austrian, I'm offended that Austria and our northern neighbor have greatly contributed to this. Our deserved guilt over the Holocaust blinded us to decade after decade of human rights abuses by Israel.

    We've seen this coming for a long time and, as a taxpaying contributor to the biggest funder of Israel, I'm ashamed.

  • There isn't. There's also no point in continuing a strategy that clearly favors Russia (they're the ones steadily gaining ground every month).

    The better strategy (which Trump almost certainly won't entertain) is to negotiate a peace now and use that time to build a robust defense-in-depth at the current border.

    It will be ugly because it will turn miles of border into a dangerous DMZ. But Russia already demonstrated that it works. Dig a crap ton of trenches. Build out bunkers and anti-tank traps. Ignore Geneva a bit and mine the crap out of the area. Lots of surveillance. Probably some experimental infrastructure to make it easier to deploy drones.

    That would also need to be coupled with commitments to build out munitions plants in Western Ukraine; primarily artillery shells and drones.

    This will work because it dramatically raises the cost of each meter of ground gained by opposing forces. Ukraine can get defensive infrastructure that they can cheaply operate, without significant external assistance.

    The downside is that Ukraine would loose parts of its territory. The upside is that it has a far better chance of keeping the territory it still has.

  • There is already a foolproof method that is immune to any abuse of trust by admins; create an alt account.

  • Maybe. "Allowed" suggested that they wanted or welcomed it.

    A bunch of formerly powerful people in the Republican party are now much less powerful. Many of them have been sidelined in the Republican party and replaced. Several prominent former Republicans have effectively switched to the Democrats.

    The Republicans and Democrats have differences in how they structure their organizations but neither one wants to intentionally allow outsiders to take over.