The US is doing everything in its power to undermine MAD and nuclear deterrence in general. This doesn't surprise me given how many more nuclear weapons the US has to China that they think they can and should use some in a conventional war. The logic being they afford to, it kills enemies that would weaken their conventional forces, and enemy use of the same would undermine their limited stockpile while US use wouldn't matter to their deterrent. Still deeply alarming.
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The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war.
And targeting Russia's nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn't? The point is the west thinks rules don't apply to them and given Russia hasn't hit MI:6 with an oreshnik yet they seem to be right. In that they can do whatever they want and if you hit them back directly as long as they have a cover THEY themselves believe in no matter how flimsy for their actions they will fly off the handle into a genocidal self-righteous indignant rage. Russia seems to know this, China probably does as well.
I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces. I don't think the US plans to send in their carrier battlegroups and fight on China's front door. They are not that stupid and even if they were good strategy would call for assuming they're smarter than that as one should never underestimate one's enemy. They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting. Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I maintain given the US advantage, given island chains not just around China but those policing west Asia, Africa, etc and NATO's combined naval sizes plus all the land bases and air assets they have that most likely they want to bleed China in the SCS, use it to justify decoupling, sanctions and an embargo and blockade and carry out that blockade off the coast of Africa, Diego Garcia, in the various straits using the zionist entity in west Asia, etc, etc. To draw China out, to spread them out, to hit them with combined naval and air assets and use the superior logistics and amounts of bases NATO has. By doing this they cross out the major advantage China has in the SCS with land-based missiles and rocketry and fight from the high-ground.
Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
Which is why they're so desperate to decouple. The bribes didn't work and were pocketed, Trump is very clumsily trying tariffs. But when it comes down to it they might think they can force decoupling with a conflict when all else has failed. Sure the consumer economy would implode but I'm not sure capitalists and empire planners wouldn't consider that and forcing the proles to a much lower quality of life as they work to re-shore an acceptable if painful cost of survival and maintaining hegemony.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
I really hope that happens but I wouldn't count on it. I'm sure the island is filled with US spies and trained dogs and any coup would face a counter-coup of ferocious proportions with support from US assets in Japan and possibly those US special forces already on the ground.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn't start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
I suppose the issue is the puppet regime there would likely respond to a blockade with military force. Not day one, maybe not even week one but eventually.
They have thousands of rockets trained on the mainland which they'd fire and rain down on the military and civilians alike in China to push the issue. Yes they'd eventually run out but the problem is the US would try to fly more in. Ships you can ram and get in the way of and blockades are therefore effective without needing to blow up a carrier, planes you have to shoot down and at that point it becomes a question of whether China would shoot down a US military transport plane and put itself in drawing first blood type of thing at which point you get American chuds hooting and baying for blood in response and liberals declaring we also must respond to "stand with Taiwan".
Make no mistake the US does not intend to let the Taiwan card be only half played. They won't let China quietly strangle it into submission with a blockade or sanctions, they will force the government to attack China and start a war no matter how doomed a position it puts them in because it lets them paint China as militarily aggressive and rally Europe and the anglo-sphere and their loyal Asian vassals to decouple from and sanction China in response with a purported cause they can blast to their populations.
Let's also not forget the US has reserve currency status. They can spend as much as they like. Let's recall the Berlin airlift where the Soviets cut off truck and land shipments into divided Berlin post-war and the US just responded by using its immense wealth and military and industrial and logistics might to just fly supplies in.
Frankly short of a coup by rational military generals in Taiwan who order the stand-down to save their lives and those of their countrymen I just don't see a situation where the US doesn't use Taiwan in a Ukraine style play. They won't last as long but they really only need to hold out for a week of breathless western propaganda coverage and crying about evil China to get things done. After that it doesn't really matter if they crumple and China doesn't need to do a massive invasion because they'll have drawn the blood they wanted and cast China as the villain and victimized Taiwan to do it.
Moscow says it won't be pressured over Ukraine 30-day truce --RT
This is foolish. As foolish as Trump's tariffs war. It's trying to bully someone with a strong hand into a deal when they already offered you one. Trying to bluff them in a situation where if they call your position collapses entirely is foolish.
Trump is showing he truly is someone swayed by whoever talks to him last. Zelensky was instructed by psychological experts from western intelligence I'm sure just how to appeal to him at their last meeting.
Russia's bottom lines have been the same since the start and the only change has been the addition of recognition of the eastern oblasts (which Russia within its own legal system incorporated as de jure parts of Russia (under Russian law)) as part of Russia.
I can only assume that this ceasefire is another Minsk agreement deception. They intend to attempt to force it, to re-arm and re-train and re-group Ukraine's military so they can put more of their men into the meat grinder and stall a collapse of the front another 10 months. And quite frankly given all the talk from France and other members of sending in troops once a ceasefire is achieved of trying to push the envelope of the acceptable slowly until Ukraine is de-facto but not de jure part of NATO.
Trump is going to ensure the US gets very little or no minerals to plunder from Ukraine if Russia has to push through to the finish.
I also wouldn't be shocked if Trump is testing the waters with this, says nothing and then when Russia pushes back hard he'll claim he never agreed to that and attempts to leave Europe on the hook for it all.
AFD like many Euro reactionary parties is shall we say racist but pragmatic. They don't care as much as the centrist EU project parties for committing economic suicide just to defend liberalism. They're at least in word (in deed I'm more skeptical) therefore more open to a kind of practical partnership with countries like Russia and China. That doesn't mean they're pro-Russia or pro-China, they're still quite racist and quite chauvinistic about the superiority of "the garden" (though often interested in changing that 'garden' to suppress gays, migrants, etc) and are not free trade fanatics so quite fine with racially tinged protectionist policies but also at least in word with working with China or Russia.
In practice it's hard to say whether they'd actually do this, it might be the US finally pushes the EU bourgeoisie too far and they elevate these reactionary elements who have been steadily gaining steam into a wave of reaction that takes over EU governments and seeks a bit more engagement with China and Russia while still staying in the US sphere.
So glad to hear that comrade! I wish you a speedy recovery. Don't push yourself, give your body attention, take it easy and I'm sure soon this will be behind you.
I don't suppose there's a window you could sit by that might let some sunlight fall on you for a bit every day or so? Not the same as walking but it might be something, a half measure that might give you some of that, maybe a window you could crack open too to get that fresh air and some sunlight in and just sit there in it early morning or evening to get some of that experience.
I'm sorry comrade, I hope you're able to find something that offers a measure of relief for this whole situation though I don't have any ideas other than these I guess. I know personally just sitting outside for a bit at the right hours in good weather can be very refreshing and energizing even without the walking so I'm kind of hoping you might be able to find some solution involving a window and the right time of day.
It’s understandable but well I guess you can try to look at the bright side. Online connectivity means though you’re inside you don’t have to be trapped mentally, you can do so many things. I think just occasionally maybe looking out a window, looking up nature videos online, things like that might help. It’s hard but it’s best not to dwell too much on can’ts and what we can’t do but instead try to find cans we enjoy. I mean it’s bound to be tough and it’s natural I think to feel frustration and not be able to totally get over it or forget what’s longed for but out of reach for now. But you do what you can and try to find little pieces of enjoyment. Maybe try meditation with nature sounds or something. I wish I had more specific advice.
I’m sorry about all you’re going through. Have you considered trying to find some enjoyable social things to do online? Hexbear has movie and TV show watching nights every evening of the week for instance and there are all kinds of other activities from playing chess to chat rooms that don’t have to cost money.
I would avoid catastrophizing about what might happen with a condition. Instead just try and focus on doing what you can to take care of it within what you have and not overdoing it, don’t worry too much and find things to distract yourself with whether it’s reading a book or online activities with others. Try if you can to find little moments of joy or laughter in a comedy show or movie and do what you can. I really hope things go well for you and your appeal works out.
I feel for you comrade but I really must advise you that unless your parents are wealthy and willing to set you up you really need either a HS diploma or a GED. You can get GED's online often. RV's are expensive, even used ones cost a lot of money and there are maintenance concerns. The type of money you're going to struggle to get without a GED or diploma.
I'd recommend if you think school isn't for you that you get that GED, you find a trade, you get certifications in it or whatever and you start working on that path. I knew someone in a similar situation to yours, ADHD, only they lied about college not HS. They had dreams of van-life and things like that but didn't do anything about it and though their parents let them live with them for a while what eventually happened is both retired, felt money was too tight and they moved away and left this person homeless. If they hadn't had an uncle willing to take them in they would have been on the streets and in terrible danger but even so things are not that great for them.
So I'd highly recommend getting that GED since conventional school doesn't agree with you and then picking up a trade. Because life will be sooo much better and easier for you if you do those two things and it'll give you the money and ability to move away from your family and live how you want in a secure way that retail work (where you're often not paid enough to survive and have to roommate up) just often won't in many areas (especially heading into a trade war with tariffs where retail could crash). You'll have so much more to fall back on than without them where you're going to kind of be a leaf on the wind which can sound kind of romantic but for every great writer who has that kind of bumming around and bumping into success as a backstory there a thousand people who are suffering and stuck on the streets sometimes until they die who tried doing the same thing but failed and were abandoned whose stories are never told in our capitalist society. Don't think the odds will favor you, take care of yourself, be safe but get a plan, find a trade, get a GED. It's some work and pain now yes but it saves you a lot of work and pain later and for the rest of your life compared to trying to go without.
Looking at that list darkernations posted, pretty much everything there requires at least high school degree (or GED) and/or on top of that some certifications or community college.
They’re a cabal of pedophiles. And also what you said and they took Anakin because of that but usually take all kinds of kids under the guise of training them. CTH talked about this on and off throughout their 3 riff tracks for the movies.
Democrats didn’t introduce it. It’s a ballot initiative (submitted by private citizens) and the writers named it that but it’ll get a number instead if it’s voted on and if it becomes law it will be as prop #x.
Democrats are not that cool in California or anywhere.
Just typical reactionary distortion of California. Though this is not smart given how many reactionaries agree with what happened in NY.
It's begging to be weaponized against LGBTQ people to push selective cases to push the narrative that they're all like that, just as the Nazis had regular columns on "Jewish crime" to give the impression the Jews were all criminals. Or to be used as a cover. I think in Russia there were stings for gay people done along similar lines, filmed and they'd often accuse them of being child molesters, of being after kids which was the homophobic narrative there.
It's a very sick individual-centered, glory-seeking approach to a problem which is fundamentally that capitalist cops don't invest serious resources in this, are often predators themselves, etc because they don't exist to protect the citizens but to protect capital. The solution then isn't these individualist acts of violence and attempts at mob justice but collective action, not for views, not for clicks, not to portray oneself as some sort of hero but to actually tackle the problem. It's also of course an issue of the family, of the lack of community involvement in each others lives which makes isolating kids easier. But that would require actual work, community-building, effort, it wouldn't be dramatic, it wouldn't stoke the egos of those involved, it wouldn't sell on youtube, so nothing is done.
The west has been brewing fascism in Ukraine longer than most people on this website have been alive. Besides that those Banderite fascist militias aren't going to all do suicide attacks on Europe or just give up and sit in their homes watching football.
They're going to be fighting and they are organized, armed, trained, and still have ties to western intelligence which would likely want to prevent a communist take-over as communists would be against NATO, against the US and align with Russia, China, etc.
Some of these Hitlerite worshippers will put on business suits, act as liberals, tone down the use of swastikas and so on but still make sure to find time to use the resources of state or their old friends to beat up and murder any leftists gathering in numbers and this will be fully, emphatically supported by the EU and the US.
Most Ukrainian Nazis have not been killed. They are blocking units who retreat first and keep the conscripts fighting. They will be alive at the end of the war.
They've indoctrinated a whole generation of kids into Nazism in their schools and before that liberalism.
Besides that China is strictly non-interventionist. Russia, their big important ally would not at all be okay with them meddling and setting up socialism there right on their border nor is China in the habit of exporting revolutionary thought. They very much would like for the newly joined regions in the east to be solid voting blocks for Putin's party of United Russia as they likely will be as Putin is the one who saved them.
The western parts of Ukraine have long had larger problems with fascist/nationalist sympathies as well as liberal aspirations. Very good chance they double down on fascism and stabbed in the back myth or just seek to become EU euro-liberal types thinking that's the formula for success. Fact is the Eastern parts are already part of Russia as far as Russia is concerned and they were the ones with the strongest pro-Soviet nostalgia I would bet and probably with the strongest communist movements.
Russia would accept Indian peacekeepers. The west would find India more palatable and Russia has a long-standing relationship. India would also not mind showing up China which it sees as a rival power though I'm not sure that's enough reason for them to agree to something like this given the target it might paint on their back among Banderites and other Nazis.
Russia truthfully would probably also accept a coalition of peacekeepers made up of multiple countries under a narrow UN mandate which seems plausible as a possibility. Likely in that case it would be a basket of Chinese, Indian, European, etc.
edit And if you think EU liberals are freaking out now about imminent war with Russia, they would find it completely unacceptable to have Chinese troops in their war-path. The US also would find Chinese presence unacceptable due to rampant sinophobia. Trump would sooner I think try and ram through Russian troops to act as peacekeepers than allow a Chinese military presence near Europe. He and the US empire leadership are kicking them out of civilian port ownership deals everywhere they can.
Prices of electronics would skyrocket (likely permanently for the west) and there would be shortages. The west would either cut off buying from fabs there immediately leading to a supply crunch or they'd blow them up also leading to a supply crunch but one impacting the mainland as well.
They're last I heard absolutely neutered. Follow the US imperialist line and are a joke. I am not an expert or Japanese this is just from recollections on discussions I've seen about them in the past.
It makes sense, Japan has been occupied by the US since 1945 and they crushed and killed the original communist movement and have kept a veritable dictatorship of the LDP or whatever running for quite some time.
Some good answers here already. Purely from consequences it's necessary to hold people to account. For example even if you didn't believe in free will at all which is kind of a maximalist argument along the lines of your point (that people are influenced by outside factors, are indoctrinated, are not entirely responsible for their thinking and hate), most agree we still should hold the r*pist to account, we should still hold the murderer to account, we should still hold the arsonist who burned down an apartment with people inside to account. That really only those in the grips of total psychosis, who are suffering from a brain malfunction, who cannot at all tell reality from fantasy are held somewhat harmless for their actions beyond being restrained and treated until no longer a threat to others.
This doesn't mean it's not human and somewhat normal to have some pity, to see the humanity in the eyes of even a murdering colonist, the humanity they gave up with their choices to become monsters.
But some people commit acts as adults so far beyond what we can forgive that no apology can suffice, no amount of pleading that they've seen the error of their ways can be enough. The extremely rare 1 in a million who decides to atone by working themselves to death in service to their victims can be left well enough alone but most let's be honest don't take any actual action beyond crying and booing their own sadness and trauma and playing the victim.
I'm sorry I just don't think someone who bombs and kills little kids and posts memes laughing about it can do anything to change the weight of their actions and what any decent society must rule is the consequence for such. Those most directly responsible for the violence, for spreading the indoctrination to others, for defending the violence (propagandists) are soaked in blood that can never be washed off. There are those whose situations are more nuanced but there are many whose situation is not at all.
As an aside I look with some amount of skepticism at those who propose that in the west we could at some enormous scale what China did at a very small scale to a small number of high ranking war criminals and a former emperor. Quite frankly the indoctrination runs far deeper here in the west than in China. Liberalism, capitalism have been here for hundreds of years. It's interwoven with religious dogma, with cultural dogma that is entirely part of the liberal super-structure unlike in China whose culture still had strong communal non-individualist (if feudal/peasant) elements to it. You try and shame a Chinese person from that era with their ancestors and community responsibility and most feel it pretty deeply, you try and shame a westerner and they scoff at you because they, their parents, their parents' parents were all raised in individualism, in a contempt for the community, in a fuck the world and treat others as stepping stones mentality, in an economic mode that directly rewarded and venerated this behavior.
Frankly in that situation you're not going to have success, you're going to have relapses be as common as any success if not more-so. The easier solution, the more merciful for all involved including the millions of jailers you'd need under such a scheme is triaging. It's the Nuremberg solution for the worst of the worst, for the bottom rungs for whom chance of success is much stronger, re-education.
That kind of thinking is the kind of blind dogmatism that Marxism-Leninism rejects. We say for each nation, for each struggle, learn from the common path but adapt to the unique circumstances rather than trying to copy paste as the Maoists (MLM) do.
You need to take care of yourself and survive too and thrive as well. And if I'm being honest given your career desires to screen-write I think another even closeted Marxist screenwriter is a lot more valuable for the movement than another part-time, distracted, under-employed, and sad cadre. So go for it and don't feel bad.
This is 100% for their planned war of aggression.
It's not just kayfabe, it's not just money for land mine manufacturers. It's to provide a defense against a Russian counter-thrust after they drive NATO forces deep into Russia via a hole in this. That way they figure they can shape things via controlling where troops end up. Russia should 100% lay their own mine-fields in response because it's impossible to know exactly where NATO forces are going to dismantle their own minefields in future to thrust through some armored columns. They should wait until after NATO does it of course so they look worse but make the mines now, get out the plans for razor wire deployments and signage to attempt to block off the mine-fields from wandering people.
Westoids are completely deranged about losing hegemony to China and multipolarity and are preparing a suicide-rush on Russia. That or they want to dissuade Russia from helping China when they commit 80% of their forces along with the US to attacking and containing China (and possibly attacking Russian shipping in the process thus giving them valid reason to respond).