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@ abff08f4813c @j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us

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1 yr. ago

  • CNN: Kamala's confusing message on Gaza and Israel

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  • I'd add that I disagree with the premise of the article. I don't see a contradiction between wanting the suffering happening to innocent Gazans to end on the one hand, while generally being supporting of Israel's right to defend itself as a country on the other hand (e.g. from Russia, if they were to go even crazier and decide that nuking Israel to distract the West from supporting Ukraine was a good idea).

    And nuance is tough to do in a campaign ad, so emphasis the part of the message that resonates with the target voters is not hypocrisy at all, not if both messages are indeed consistent with your underlying platform.

    As far as I know, this is indeed the case - Harris supports an immediate ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the return of the remaining hostages, along with an eventual two state solution. I don't see how that contradicts either message above, if it were possible to implement. (It's not because Israel under Netanyahu won't go along with it, but, I mean, if it were.)

    Remember, there are Israelis who live in Israel, who want an immediate ceasefire, as per https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/24/israel-immediate-ceasefire-open-letter and https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblogentry/some-300-left-wing-activists-protests-genocide-in-gaza-at-tel-avivs-habima-square/ - and Harris's position on this appears to be the same as, or at least very similar to, theirs.

  • Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign

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  • Hey, thanks for the long and thorough reply. I’m a bit overwhelmed :)

    Yeah, I think we all are at this point. It's been a tough election year for everyone.

    This is exactly where my doubts come from. The whole piece has the air of “conventional politics“

    I can see how someone would see that. For me, the first thing that stood was how unconventional the candidate really is, even compared to his own, presumably super MAGA, team.

    but at the same time, from an outside perspective, it looks like the whole party has been thoroughly streamlined towards their leader in the past 8 years.

    It really does, doesn't it? Of course there's a major contingent that isn't still - ranging from those who are endorsing Harris to folks like Mitt Romney who believe in a post-MAGA GOP.

    And a cult of MAGA would probably not resemble much of traditional politics.

    So, we already know what it would look like. The guy is running for re-election, not for first-time election. The simple answer is that this guy went with folks like Rex Tillerson and John Kelly and H.R. McMaster in the first place because the pro-MAGA crowd, while enthusiastic, didn't have members who could fill in and do these jobs.

    True, but who is Trump going to convince to switch sides a week before the election?

    Well, certainly not me. SHHHHH, you don't tell him either!!!

    You might as well turn up the rhetoric to 11 and say the quiet part out loud, in order to convince your own base to vote for you.

    Except they were already going to turn out for him no matter what happened. So he didn't need to do that to convince them to get on board - he would have been better off listening to his more traditional advisors and keeping himself restrained to maintain the broadest possible coalition.

    This is a slippery slope of course, and the outcome could either be losing people with this radicalisation or making sure even more radical people who did not plan to vote show up at the booth

    .. and vote for the other candidate (Harris).

    Yep, fortunately, he couldn't do he couldn't restraint himself, and hopefully not only the US but the whole world benefits when he loses - exactly for the reasons you state above.

    It will be interesting to see if they can put a lid on it and return to politics that at the very least appears less crazy and unhinged in case Trump loses the election.

    Spoiler alert: This won't happen. At least not right away. This isn't the first time - what we saw back in Jan 2021, we have every reason to expect again, and zero reasons not to.

    And to deter people from voting for someone else, out of fear.

    Sadly, I am seeing on the news that this may already be happening this election, regardless.

    Also, even if it was possible for Trump to extend a hand and suddenly appear reasonable who would believe him after all that happened?

    So the point of the article, or at least the claim they are trying to make, is to state that the MAGA candidate was doing really well prior to these dog whistles, and at least some folks on his campaign along with some senior traditional Republican strategists attributed it to him having appeared reasonable and not crazy. Then afterwards, the dog whistles ruined things moments before reaching the finish line.

    I guess he doesn’t have a choice but take the route of last-minute radicalisation.

    Again, the article is claiming he did have a choice - and that he would have been better off not taking this late-minute route. As I wrote earlier this also seems to be backed up somewhat by the polling.

    Of course, just because the article claims something doesn't mean they're right. A healthy dose of skepticism is reasonable and in this case, warranted. But at least parts of it seem plausible, based on what we know from living under him after he took office in 2017, along with the recent changes happening in the polls for 2024.

    We’ll see how this turns out. Personally I am so sick of seeing the orange conman dominate public discourse worldwide for eight years in a row. It is time to move on and I can only hope the majority of Americans has had enough too.

    Same here. Remember he lost the popular vote in 2016? So yes, the majority was likely already sick of him back them. And then he lost it by a larger margin in 2020.

    I doubt he'd be running in 2028. He'd be older than Biden is now (who is already the oldest US President ever I think), and he'll likely be incarcerated then too if he's lost. (Remember, he's already been convicted of federal crimes, he is just awaiting sentencing - I think November 26 was one expected date).

  • US long-range bomber joins air drill with South Korea, Japan

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  • Otherwise agreed. I guess the news part is that it's done "in response to" what NK did recently - like this is an extra joint air drill that otherwise wouldn't have taken place if NK hadn't done anything.

    That said, I recall reading the same kind of articles back in 2012, and in 2016, and 2018, and ... so, agreed in full.

  • Inside the Ruthless, Restless Final Days of Trump’s Campaign

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  • I could of course be completely wrong on this and I would be more than happy to be proven wrong

    Actually, that feeling of being rubbed the wrong way (even in the metaphorical sense) is inherently subjective. So, it's not something I or anyone else can disprove to you or "prove wrong".

    As a non-american, somehow this article rubs me the wrong way.

    I guess, it seems like a whitewashing here, that the folks on the campaign aren't as evil as we'd otherwise assume (e.g. all of them being racist Nazis)?

    You're correct that we shouldn't assume otherwise - it'd be dangerous to bend over backwards and assume they aren't Nazis if they really are - but at the same time, it's plausible that there are still some "adults in the room" in the campaign, along the lines of https://www.vox.com/world/2018/3/14/17114444/rex-tillerson-fired-rexit-trump-adults

    I have a suspicion that all the talk about public relation disasters and staffers worried about their candidate‘s reputation does not accurately portrait what is really going on there.

    I think the reason this sounds reasonable is because a lot of the folks on the GOP campaign are longtime GOP folks, who know - or at least have certain long-held beliefs about - how this conventionally works.

    The other aspect at play here is that they jumped onto MAGA for entirely self serving purposes even though this doesn't reflect what they really thing.

    Or is it, Mr. Vance?

    Interesting you bring him up. In some ways he's the perfect example of this.

    Vance in 2012,

    Republicans ... their policy proposals are ... or openly hostile to non-whites.

    Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20140305032241/http://centerforworldconflictandpeace.blogspot.com/20121101archive.html via https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/17/politics/jd-vance-delete-2012-blog-post-attacking-gop-anti-immigrant-rhetoric/index.html

    Vance in 2024,

    J.D. Vance tripled down on his debunked claims that Haitian immigrants are killing and eating local pets in Springfield, Ohio, while also admitting, 'If I Have to Create Stories... That's What I'm Going to Do'

    Source: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/jd-vance-haitians-if-i-have-to-create-stories-1235102572/

    To me it looks like everything that happened including the MSG shitshow was absolutely the way they wanted it to go. It’s a page out of the fascist playbook and it uses the same tactics that have been proven successful since Germany 1933.

    I think this best describes the candidate. But not everyone on the campaign is going to share these views, as it were.

    The explicit goal is to strengthen the collective bonds with voters who already made their decision and to kick it up a notch at the same time.

    But this is not really how one wins. You need a broad coalition backing you to win - playing to a smaller base may make them feel good, but it's not going to bring enough folks backing you to the polls on election day. And again a lot of the folks on the GOP campaign are longtime GOP folks, who know how this conventionally works, so this mean they'd have the understanding (correct or not) that this not the direction a winning GOP campaign should take.

    They don’t give a shit about angering Puerto Rican voters or even maintaining a modicum of decency in general. They are trying to provoke a mania in their own base that spirals out of control

    and so far it works pretty well for them.

    Citation needed. In fact there's some evidence that (after a delay in the polling to reflect the latest updates and information) this really hurt them. See for example, https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ or https://www.axios.com/2024/11/03/harris-iowa-poll-trump-women or even https://www.rasmussenreports.com/publiccontent/politics/partnersurveys/election2024harris49trump48inmichigan

    This is an endgame strategy.

    I'd argue that part of the strategy is for the candidate to campaign with the "principles of restraint and competence" to ensure his re-election. Only then can he do his damage.

    Expose this too early and they have the issues I noted above.

    The only thing that is not going according to plan is that their candidate is falling apart mentally

    Hmm .. perhaps he's failing to restrain himself and exposing this ugly side early, specifically because he's falling apart mentally? Thus screwing up his own campaign's endgame?

  • October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist

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  • The other point is that, as the latest from Nate Silver,

    At this point, there’s enough new polling that it’s hard to know exactly what’s influencing the model, but Harris is gaining in our forecast,

    Reversing the past week's polling showing the GOP and MAGA gaining. So even if you didn't believe the previous polls about this, the fact that the polls themselves are starting to now trend blue is interesting in and of itself.

  • Deleted

    Permanently Deleted

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  • This. Pretty much everyone with a legal degree thinks this case is junk and should be mocked (as per the CNBC article). Alas, it's filled in the one court that would say otherwise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forumshopping at it's lowest...

  • Court denies request to force count of votes for Green Party's Jill Stein in Ohio

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  • I think it's more likely she's a useful idiot for Russia and an asset to the GOP. But I suppose there's not too much practical difference from our standpoint...

    (Incidentally, according to Wikipedia, her actual middle name is Ellen.)

  • Removed

    Trouble with .io domains as the UK hands over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).

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  • Removed

    Trouble with .io domains as the UK hands over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).

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  • In fact, specifically for this reason, it's forseeable that Mauritius does not retire the domain but keeps .io around, the same way that Russia keeps .su around (.ru being RUssia, and .su being the Soviet Union that hasn't been around for quite a few decades now).

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    CAIR’s Final Election Poll Shows Stein and Harris Still Tied Among Muslim Voters, Trump Trailing

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  • Not surprised the GOP candidate is trailing.

  • Trump will become first major 2024 candidate to visit majority-Arab Dearborn, Michigan

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  • Hey, no worries. Glad we got that clarified though - I was sweating buckets.

  • US elections: European Greens call for Jill Stein to step down

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  • I guess the US Green party got kicked out of the international federation of Greens? Somehow that's not surprising...

    But then, shouldn't someone make a "New Green Party" that is a member of the federation? And can claim legitimacy as the true Green party with international support? Pointing out that the other Green party in the US lacks recognition and is thus a sham?

    And then .. this new Green party - could endorse the Dem candidate for President. Most folks who'd follow the greens would probably follow that endorsement...

  • Trump will become first major 2024 candidate to visit majority-Arab Dearborn, Michigan

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  • Hey, I wasn't disputing that you voted for Harris - my "lecture" was to convince others in your situation that there's hope that Democrats will stop "supporting genocide" as you put it, after Harris wins.

  • Pa. Democratic Party sues Erie board of elections over up to 20,000 missing mail ballots in the bellwether county

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  • No, that's return rate. So we know at least 52% in the county got theirs, because they returned it and it was received. And statewide we know at least 67% got theirs, because they returned it and it was received.

    Some (hopefully small) number of voters might have gotten their ballot but then ignored it or threw it away - or mistakenly spoiled it somehow (mistook it for a napkin at dinner time).

    Others might have returned their ballots and then they got lost in the mail on the way back.

    So the return rate isn't completely indicative of how many failed to get sent out.

    We don't know for sure how many failed to be sent out, but it's reasonable to assume the number is high, due to the large disparity between the statewide return rate and the county return rate.

  • Trump will become first major 2024 candidate to visit majority-Arab Dearborn, Michigan

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  • To be fair, it's Harris on the ballot, not (Bill) Clinton.

    And, to her credit, Harris said this, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/harris-appears-to-agree-with-protester-accusing-israel-of-genocide-what-he-s-talking-about-it-s-real/ar-AA1szCVt

    This gives me optimism that post-election, Harris will allow her views to evolve in the right direction here.

    Remember when Obama was against same-sex marriage? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-still-opposes-same-sex-marriage/ But he was open to having his mind changed, and eventually he did, https://www.cnn.com/2012/05/09/politics/obama-same-sex-marriage/index.html

    This is what we need to aim for with Harris

  • Trump will become first major 2024 candidate to visit majority-Arab Dearborn, Michigan

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  • He's trying to make the pro-Netanyahu case to them

    Israeli forces have to kill tens of thousands of Palestinians because they are allegedly human shields for Hamas.

    I.e. Hamas is evil and it's their fault that Israeli bullets ended up inside of innocent Gazians. There is an element of truth to this, but as the article points out,

    It should be noted that the Israeli military has recently been accused of using Palestinian civilians as human shields in their Gaza operations.

    The only good thing about this is that it makes Harris look more moderate by comparison.

  • College student from China charged in Michigan illegal ballot case

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  • I have a feeling that this was a mistake. More details needed, but

    He registered to vote on Sunday by using his University of Michigan student identification and documents establishing residency in Ann Arbor, according to Benander. later contacted the local clerk’s office requesting to get the ballot back, Benander said.

    Probably he thought he was voting for the student body president or something similar. Or he thought he was voting in a poll sponsored by the university rather than a real ballot for the real US election (akin to https://deadline.com/2024/10/winner-nickelodeons-kids-pick-the-president-poll-kamala-harris-1236159880/ where kids "vote" but it's just a poll).

    Also,

    The student signed a document identifying himself as a U.S. citizen

    But maybe he didn't understand what he was signing due to the language barrier? Maybe he somehow got rushed into signing it (because he was late for class) and only realized what he'd done after he got a chance to read his copy the next day or something?

    I've heard stories about DMVs just taking your word for it and marking a checkbox. I guess this is different because he actually signed, but even so...

    Finally,

    later contacted the local clerk’s office requesting to get the ballot back, Benander said.

    I.e. he realized his mistake and tried to correct it. Which is was brought this case to everyone's attention. Guy tries to do the right thing in the end, and ends up arrested.

  • Missouri Republican election challenger says he should be allowed to watch early voting

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  • I've not seen anything to suggest that the candidate wants to personally observe things.

    Rather, as per the St Louis Post,

    Travis Allen Heins, of St. Peters, filed for the injunction on Wednesday, saying that official "watchers" or "challengers" were wrongly being kept from observing inside polling places during early voting in St. Charles County. His suit requests that early voting not be allowed to continue without watchers or challengers. Such observers had been disallowed by Bahr, because he said they're only allowed in when ballots are being prepared for counting, or being counted, on election day.

    I.e. he's fine with meeting all the requirements you list, but he wants the observers to be able to observe the early voting tabulation on the days of early voting, not just the checks or tabulation that happens only starting on election day.

  • Supreme Court’s conservative justices leave in place Virginia’s purge of voter registrations

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