The red states are net takers compared to federal. Taxes paid. In this hypothetical civil conflict all sides are materially worse off but the south would be worst by a margin. Material deprivation by the general populace can end a war, but it doesn't always.
See Russia in Ukraine for an example.
Where the lines are matters, whether Ohio and Michigan are in the NEUS or the south makes a big difference in population and industry.
Personally E did not change my orientation towards women.