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5 mo. ago

  • Possibly, the High Qing era is considered the last golden age of the Chinese dynasties and was quite impressive, but that ended in 1799 after the death of the Qianlong Emperor over 200 years ago.

  • My respect for the DPRK and the PRC's leadership just keeps increasing every time the US bombs or coups another country. Both countries beelined towards nuclear weapons the moment they were able to, then foresaw the consequences of an unfiltered internet dominated by wealthy western corporations and sought to rectify that. They then demonstrated the effectiveness of scientific socialism by developing faster than any other nation in comparable circumstances, showing how it is imperialism, not 'authoritarianism' or whatever, that cripples a nation's economic development and the livelihood of their people.

  • I think this also reflects Trump's contempt for the EU. Compared to the annexation of Greenland, the operations you mentioned were far more limited in scope, and had little impact on the broader strategic landscape. To invade and occupy the world's biggest island (albeit sparsely inhabited) has significant, lasting consequences on a global scale that his prior military actions hadn't.

    Given that Trump seems genuinely averse to entangling his forces too deeply, it's pretty clear he believes the EU to be as incapable, if not even less so, as countries like Iran or Venezuela.

  • I'm assuming that on the scale and resources of a great power, there's nothing really stopping one from just nuking all potential adversaries in a MAD scenario (whether directly at war or not) to deter against this exact situation. That's why the US and Russia each have thousands of nukes, and why China is also aiming to get over a thousand. Things like international norms or plausible deniability probably fall by the wayside in an existential conflict.

  • At the very least, I think this could further radicalise a significant amount of people, and wasn’t there this gentleman who mentioned how quantitative changes accumulate into qualitative change?

  • Might be cope, but isn’t the empire being a bit too hasty? Even the blandest vote blue anti-violence liberal hates ICE, and there isn’t a long-standing propaganda pipeline to sanctify ICE compared to the police or the military. Feels like the entire organisation is going to be politically toxic to all but the hardcore MAGA types.

  • Honestly, kind of. Turkey-Israeli tensions are pretty high right now, and the Turks probably don't see NATO as a reliable backstop against Israel. For the Saudis, they are also dealing with deteriorating relations with the UAE, which incidentally have been getting quite chummy with Israel.

  • The most valuable point Mearsheimer makes is that there are structural reasons why the US just won't spend as much of their manpower, resources, and efforts into defending or maintaining this close relationship with Europe, as they need to shift their focus into combating China, primarily in East Asia and Latin America.

    Trump absolutely is anomalous in how openly contemptuous he is of the Europeans, but the fact is that it's no longer in the US' best interests to maintain their footprint in Europe, and any administration would begin to pivot away from the EU. It feels like only a minority of Europeans grasp that, and even fewer realize that this means their hostilities with Russia will become an albatross around their neck as they can no longer hide behind American guns.

  • Honestly, I've just been very confused by the whole thing. The US has so far acquired one president and his wife, but that doesn't magically mean that the US suddenly gets to run Venezuela, because the Chavistas are still in power. Sure, they could do some follow up operations, but they've just given Venezuela a huge warning signal to bolster internal security and crack down on infiltrators, making the US' job more difficult. I really don't see how kidnapping Maduro has strengthened the US' influence in Venezuela, if anything it's the opposite.

  • The mental gymnastics is pretty silly. There’s no need to invent some convoluted scheme by Russia or China, when everything Trump has done is either for personal benefit, or makes some American oil/tech/military company a lot richer.

    Is Russia and China trying to gain influence in the US? Probably, but any influence they have will always be dwarfed by the influence that the American capitalist class has, especially as they are simply the wealthiest and most powerful class in the world.

  • Yes, clearly this 'Monroe Doctrine' thing that Trump keeps talking about was from Putin all those years ago!

  • This really shows how terrible of a humanitarian crisis the USSR's dismantling and neoliberal 'shock therapy' was, that only very recently has absolute poverty declined back down to the same level as when the USSR still existed.

  • Our Chinese colleague also mentioned that his government, not surprisingly, is very concerned about the disruptive social, cultural, and political impacts of artificial intelligence. That’s led China’s top officials to invest considerable effort in establishing effective AI governance. They appear more concerned about that problem than US politicians.

    The tech titans at the top of the US AI pyramid don’t want to be governed, and the Trump administration obtained their considerable financial and political support by promising to give them free rein.

    This is probably the most naked example of the difference between the dictatorship of the proletariat and the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. Also, something makes me think that part of the reason for the US companies' feverish chase to AGI is that they believe it's their last chance to stay ahead of China, now that their lead in almost every field is either gone or eroding.

  • Can't wait to nerd out over the 15th 5 year plan when it comes out in March. Glad to see some focus on elderly care and employment protections. Wish the people of China a great year.

  • Donald Trump’s K-shaped economy

    …Seems to predate Trump by quite a lot

  • Humanoids are a very intriguing path of robotics to me. Certainly, they are generally outclassed by specialised industrial robots in their areas, but because we design the environment around us, humanoids have the potential to be vastly more versatile.

    In particular, on area I am hopeful on is rubbish sorting for recycling. With modern vision models + the dexterity of humanoid arms, it shouldn’t be too long until we can automate the sorting process, which would make large scale recycling dramatically more feasible and cost-effective.

  • We must commandeer the apparatus of digital manufacture through the application of liberated, open-source models to yield implements dedicated to expressive liberty, not shareholder value.

    This is a great conclusion. As long as this technology solely remains in hands of corporations, they will always be used as a tool for surveillance, opinion manipulation, and oppression. But there is nothing fundamentally oppressive or evil about these models, certainly not to the extent that justifies blind, uncompromising hatred against anything related to AI.

    Open source, open weights, and open licences are the answer. LLMs and diffusion models have reaped the bounty of human knowledge and creativity, and must thus be made available to the public in turn. We need to familiarise ourselves with the technology, not just to learn how to use it, but also to know how it may be used against us. Ignorance is not protection, scorn and contempt will not save us.

  • What even is overcapacity? If China makes more stuff than it buys, isn’t that just the comparative advantage thing neoliberals love to talk about so much? Besides, China’s exports as a percentage of GDP is less than Japan or Germany or the RoK, so it’s not like there is anything abnormal about China’s export strategy either.