Let's circle back on this later. I feel like we are simply dealing with completely different facts (Iran landed a hit on Mossad HQ, in the middle of downtown Tel Aviv). Let's see what happens after Trump bombs Iran. Hoping it never happens!
I think you are wrong. Iran has a large suite of ballistic missiles. Unless the carriers stay out of the max range of those arms, a carrier will be sunk.
Iran has deeper commitment to their government than Iraq. And how could the US get to an occupation without moving troops?
I think a bombing campaign that aims at a counter-revolution is most likely the US thinking. That will quickly go nuclear, especially after Iran sinks an aircraft carrier.
https://youtu.be/BauyzgoiEsA