He was already polling poorly and while it's basically tied in the polling, it's 47-47 and Trump won the state by a point in 2020 so the undecideds probably lean his way.
I tend to think a scandal of some other person can't hurt a presidential campaign that much, mostly just enthusiasm. So no, I don't think it will tank the Trump Campaign.
Gut says it moves from toss-up leaning Trump to true 50/50 toss-up.
The sticky part is that the key difference between cheating and an open relationship is consent, so the app/site itself doesn't change anything, his partner's knowledge and acceptance of his use of the app/site does.
Speaks to character, if you run as a "family values" candidate while cheating on your spouse. It's not inherently disqualifying, especially compared to self identifying as a Nazi, but it's not something that the press or the people should ignore.
"What people do in the sheets" rhetoric is for stuff like kinky sex or being gay...nobody should care if he likes getting pegged. Nobody should care if he has an open relationship. Nobody should care that he likes trans porn, which he said he does. The problem with cheating is the character concern of caring about your wants no matter who it hurts. That is a bad characteristic for a political leader.
There should really be a redistribution gas tax, another dollar per gallon on gas which then goes back split evenly to every American. Incentivizes less gas usage while avoiding the regressive nature of a sales tax. Canada has something like this.
Ruinous politically so it would never happen but it would be a good plan.
What the Trump campaign thinks it's doing: keeping the conversation on immigration, making a photo op in a city at the center of the conversation.
What the Trump campaign is actually doing: keeping the conversation on Trump's lunatic false claims, spending time campaigning in a state he won by 8 points last time.
He voted for Trump. Not a ton of Democrats do that. Call me crazy but while I'd assume someone who ends up attempting assassination doesn't like the person they attempt assassinating, that doesn't mean they are automatically a member of the opposing political party. 1/3rd of Americans are independents.
If it becomes a democratic majority of the US who has attempted to assassinate the guy, it would be right to listen to them about who should be president. But not because of the assassination thing.
Guys, I hate to be controversial here, but maybe we can't extrapolate anything valuable about politicians based on two incidents of attempted assassination. I don't care about the opinions of these two crazy guys.
Give a man a raise and you feed him for one year. Teach a man to unite for regular raises and good benefits and you'll feed him for the rest of his life.
Feels like it's more xenophobic. Obviously one assumes many of the referenced people are brown, but they are assumed poor too and we aren't saying it's classist. The thing that unites all of the people implicated in the claim is that they are foreigners.
It's a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it's a decent model. Knowing the model there's a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it's not like he's pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.
If it's overstaying Trump it's because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.
He was already polling poorly and while it's basically tied in the polling, it's 47-47 and Trump won the state by a point in 2020 so the undecideds probably lean his way.
I tend to think a scandal of some other person can't hurt a presidential campaign that much, mostly just enthusiasm. So no, I don't think it will tank the Trump Campaign.
Gut says it moves from toss-up leaning Trump to true 50/50 toss-up.