There's a middle ground. The near future of the party is Ron DeSantis and JD Vance, the smoothed down versions of Trump. I don't think that works and someone new will come out fully populist with authoritarian edges, maybe a Hispanic man to help attract the working class beyond just white people, that seems to be the growth opportunity Republicans need and maybe that solidifies Arizona/Nevada/Texas for them while they put all the effort into the Blue Wall and North Carolina.
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It's close because Trump is not a disciplined candidate and he keeps doubling down on young men instead of trying to build his appeal to new areas.
Most of the time if inflation hits 9% and wages lag behind inflation (as they always do) the incumbent party loses. Nikki Haley would be winning 60/40 right now.