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LargePenis [he/him]

@ LargePenis @hexbear.net

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5 yr. ago

  • Iraqi parliamentary elections in around 10 days. I've spent the last week studying the whole situation to my wife's dismay, so you nerds will get a mega post next week where I will break down every big party by governorate and present my calculations of how the government formation might look. You're also getting some commentary on the big question marks ahead of the elections and how the whole system works.

  • The previous deal had no deeper involvement by regional guarantors. The only tangible involvement from a regional partner was by Qatar, but now you have both Turkey and Egypt also deeply involved. The international pressure is also different now. My main source of confidence is in Trump himself, he has tied his name to this and despite being Israel's best friend, his red line is his name getting dragged if the deal collapses. Hamas will respect their side of this deal, the Qataris, Turks and Egyptians will whisper that in Trump's ear, and he'll make sure that Israel respect their part.

  • I believe in this deal, Trump won't allow this to collapse for entirely selfish reasons, and that's okay. There are too many regional partners involved in this too, they can't allow upsetting Egypt, Turkey and Qatar all at once.

  • Qataris would shake hands with Satan himself if it gets them a diplomatic victory. This deal doesn't happen if the attack on Doha didn't happen, and at this stage, this was the best thing that could've happened. History will look back at the Qatari role in this fondly, at least they pushed towards ending the blood sacrifice of hundreds of thousands of Gazans.

  • God damn I'm tearing up now, it's finally over. Big respect for the Qataris for actually sticking around until the end and getting this deal done despite getting stabbed in the back by Israel and the US. May God have mercy on the all martyrs of the last two years. In the end, Israel didn't break the resolve of Gaza's people and they emerged victorious and steadfast from this catastrophe. Shame on the world for the last two years. We Arabs and Muslims don't deserve Gaza's blood.

  • I've been on twitter recently again and I've been laughing so much at these "IT'S NOT ISRAEL YOU SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT, IT'S QATAR!!!" posts that unhinged Zionists make. Qatar definitely does some evil shit, but come the fuck on lmao, Qatar's worst crimes doesn't even touch 1% of a normal Israeli day. Why is attacking Qatar even the official line for them suddenly? Qatar is literally a top 5 non-NATO ally for the US. If Qataris and other gulfies had a brain, then their lobbies should've been more powerful than AIPAC, but they're dumbasses that fund the same evil shit that Israel funds. I can only laugh at the absurdity of something like "DON'T TALK ABOUT AIPAC WITHOUT TALKING ABOUT QATARI MONEY. I don't exactly see senators wearing an Arab agal and kissing the walls of Souq Waqif after getting a guided tour by the Qatari Army on the disputed territory of Hawar Islands lol

  • Nothing super cool zone yet, but if it explodes then it should be tomorrow after Friday prayers.

  • Youth protests in Morocco seem to be heating up. Something to keep an eye on. Morocco is the most Zionist Arab state after the UAE, so hopefully this snowballs into something useful. Young men and women were out protesting about healthcare and unemployment, but in classic Arab fashion the government responded with extreme brutality and a young man died today because the cops ran over him. Interesting to see how it develops, either it dies down by the end of the week, or explodes by Friday and the weekend. A part of the people's grievances is that the Moroccan state is pissing away billions of dollars on football infrastructure for the AFCON in two months and the 2030 World Cup. The biggest protest hotspot seems to be Agadir, a city ravaged by white people tourism and government mismanagement, and the city is also set to be one of the host cities for both competitions. I've talked about Morocco here before, the Moroccan state is definitely in the top 5 of states that I personally hate the most.

  • Interesting post by Saudi propagandist Malek Al Rougi:

    The Iranian-Israeli War

    Attack on Abqaiq

    The Bombing of Doha

    Events and stances that raise strategic questions for decision-makers.

    Those who read the context of Gulf security find that the Gulf Cooperation Council was established due to the Iraqi-Iranian War, welcomed American and European bases after Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, and after 2011, the Gulf intervened directly to protect Bahrain by deploying the Peninsula Shield Forces despite Western opposition and despite the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet on its soil. In 2015, the Gulf intervened in Yemen through Operation Decisive Storm to support Yemeni legitimacy against the Houthi coup, and there was also Western opposition to this at various stages. Years ago, we witnessed the attack on Abqaiq and Aramco and the Western stance, as well as what happened in the Iranian-Israeli War, Iran’s bombing of Doha, and the evacuation of Al Udeid Air Base. This week, Israel bombed a Gulf country for the first time in history by targeting Doha, which hosts the largest American base, and despite Israel being an ally of Washington, Netanyahu bombed in a criminal manner without regard, with a soft American stance toward what happened.

    If those who intend to attack the Gulf knew that Kuwait’s borders extend to Jazan, Doha’s borders extend to Jeddah, and Tabuk’s borders extend to Muscat, they would not consider attacking. What reassures is that the Gulf is distinguished by flexible leadership that possesses bold and informed decision-making to understand and organize Gulf national security.

    My own comment: the shift in rhetoric by Gulf propaganda figures has been very interesting to follow. It doesn't mean anything yet, but they're sensing that populations in the Gulf are livid, and a dominant theme within policy nerd discussions right now is "why not China if America can't protect us?".

  • As cynical as I am, but I have a feeling that this image will mean something for the Middle East in years:

    Context: Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad performing funeral prayers for one Qatari martyr and four Palestinian martyrs after the Zionist bombing of Doha.

  • Ex-military psycho, mid-30s, insane Facebook account uncovered after they catch him

  • Imagine dying in Utah

  • The bullet was guided by Allah, he won't survive

  • Charlie Kirk is dead lmao

  • We interrupt the Qatar news cycle with reports about a Russian drone strike on a target in Poland. 5+ drones already crossed Polish airspace a few minutes ago and now there are reports that Russians struck something in Polish territory. I'm logging out for the day after a day of furious posting, see you on the other side.

    Ladies and gentlemen, we're living in the age of happening, the nothing ever happeners are dead.

  • If we ignore all the political implications of everything and just focus on the human side.

    This is Badr Al Dossari

    His Qatari blood is now mixed with Palestinian blood, Lebanese blood, Syrian blood, Iranian blood, Yemeni blood and the blood of countless others on the road to Al Aqsa. He's just another sacrifice to satiate the unstoppable bloodlust of the Israeli war machine. May Allah grant him the highest ranks of heaven, next to all martyrs of the past two years and beyond.

  • It feels hard to imagine, but maybe something like this:

    • Using Al Jazeera to attack Saudi/Emirati interests in the region
    • Financing MB branches in Egypt and accelerating dissent against Sisi's regime
    • Buying the loyalty of Jolani's freaks in Syria and making the new Syria a Qatari-Turkish outpost that could be used to harass Israel
    • Helping Iran evade sanctions more effectively by shipping to Iran from Qatar's ports
    • Cutting deals under the table to help finance Ansarallah institutions in Yemen
    • Sabotaging the American-Israeli-Saudi plan to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon by financing Hezbollah and their allies
    • Selling more LNG to China and their allies instead of Europe and the US
    • Sabotaging Saudi's 2030 plan and their upcoming hosting of the FIFA World Cup in 2034

    If you're interested in how this actually looks in action, check out some of Al Jazeera's old reporting on stuff like the Egyptian elections in 2012, Khashoggi's murder and the 2006 Lebanon War

  • I'm the Gulf's biggest hater, but give them time honestly. Today was a shock on all levels, the illusion of invincibility was completely shattered for the first time since the establishment of the new order in the Middle East post-Gulf War. Things will not stay the same.

  • The Qataris have an admirable flexibility and a willingness to test the limits of US blob in a way that other US-controlled states don't dare to do. Qatar agitated through Al Jazeera against US-supported governments in Egypt, Tunisia and numerous other Arab states during the Arab Spring and were instrumental in toppling a few. They have always been Iran's most important partner in the Gulf, and they maintain financial and logistical support networks for Muslim Brotherhood branches in all over the Muslim world, which of course angers the US and their favorite cucks in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem. They have also refused full normalisation with Israel, still allow anti-imperialist dissent in the country, and directly criticise Israel every day through Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera is Qatar's most potent weapon, and any change in Qatar's direction will first be noticed in what Al Jazeera shows on its screens. I believe that Qatar is smart enough to realign themselves again outside the Saudi-UAE-Israeli Axis, just like they did in 2017 with the Gulf Crisis.