Wealthy non-whites don't cause as much transport pollution as their melanin-lacking counterparts?
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Ding! Ding! Ding!
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if this is your take, then lot of keyboard made a lot of discovery.
This is literally my point. It is arbitrary to choose that all the good ideas came from "humans". If we are going to give all credit for anything AI produces to humans, then it only seems fair to give all credit for human things to our common ancestors with chimpanzees, because if it were not for their clever ideas, we would never have been here. But wait, we can't stop there, because we have to give credit to the original single-celled life forms, and eventually, back to the universe itself(like I mentioned before).
Look, I totally get the desire to want to glorify humans and think that we have something special that machines don't/can't have. It kinda sucks to think that we are not so special, and potentially extememly inferior to what is right around the corner. We can't let that primal ego desire cloud our judgement, though. Our brains are physical machines doing calculations. There is not some magical difference between our calculations that make it so we can make discoveries and machines cannot.
Imagine you teach your little brother how to play chess, and then your brother thinks about it a bunch and comes up with a bunch of new strategies and starts to kick your butt every time, and eventually atatts crushing tournaments. Sure, you can cling to the fact that you taught him how to play, and you can go around telling everyone how "you" are winning all these tournaments because your brother is actually winning them, but it doesn't change the fact that your brother is the one with the secret sauce that you simply are unable to comprehend.
Your whole point is that if people do it, then it is some special discovery thing, but if computers do it, then it is just computational brute force. There is actually no difference between the two, it is just two different ways of wording the same process. We made programs that could understand the rules, and then it went further and in the same direction that we were trying to go.
So far as continuing indefinitely because we are on a trajectory goes, sure, we will eventually hit some intelligence plateaus, but we are nowhere near this point. Why can I say this with such certainty? Because we have things that we know will work that we haven't gotten around to combining yet. Some of this gets a bit technical, but a nice way to think of it is this. Right now, we are mainly using hardware designed to generate general graphics that we have hijacked to use for machine learning. The usual speedup when we go from using generalized hardware to specialized is about 5 orders of magnitude(10,000x). That kind of a gain has huge implications in the AI/ML world. This is just one out of many known improvements on the horizon, but it is one of the simplest to wrap your head around. I don't know how familiar you are with things like crewAI or autogen, but they are phenomenal, they absolutely crush all of the greatest base LLMs, but they are still a bit slow due to how many LLM calls they take. When we have a 10,000x speedup(which is pretty much guarenteed), then everyone will be able to instantly use enormous agent frameworks like this in an instant.
I understand wanting to see humans as having a monopoly on "intelligence", but quite frankly that era is coming to an end. It may be a bumpy ride, but the sooner humans learn to adjust to this new world, the better. I don't think it is something that someone can really make someone else see, but once you do see it, it is very obvious. I suggest you check out the cutting-edge agent stuff out there and then imagine that the most impressive stuff will be routinely done from a single prompt in an instant. Then, on top of that, consider that the base LLMs that we have now are the worst there will ever be. We are in for a very wild ride.
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I didn't say LLMs made these discoveries. They didn't. AI made those discoveries. Yes, it is true that humans made AI, so in a way, humans made the discoveries, but if that is your take, then it is impossible for AI to ever make any discovery. Really, if we take this way of thinking to its natural conclusion, then even humans can never make discoveries, only the universe can make discoveries, since humans are a result of the universe "universing". It is arbitrary to try to credit humans with anything that happens further down their evolution.
Humans tried for a long time to get good at chess, and AI came along and made the absolute best chess players utterly irrelevant even if we give a team of the worlds best chessplayers an endless clock and thr AI a single minute for the entire game. That was 20 years ago. This is happening in more and more fields and showing no sign of stopping. We don't know yet if discoveries will come from future LLMs like theybm have from other forms of AI, but we do know that with each generation more and more complex patterns are being identified and utilized by LLMs. 3 years ago the best LLMs would have scored single digits on IQ test, now they are triple digits, it is laughable to think that anyone knows where the current rapid trajectory will stop for this new technology, and much more laughable to think we are already at the end.
This is especially interesting, considering he left Google 3 years ago, according to his website. It's a bit misleading to put this old tweet up alongside a recent Google screenshot.
This website is amazing! How have I never heard of this before?! Did you know that using glue will make your cheese extra stretchy? Who would have guessed it? This is my new favorite site.
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We are already past that. The 48% is from a version of chatgpt(3.5) that came out a year ago, there has been lots of progress since then.
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Google is a search engine. It points you to web pages that are made by people. Many times, the people who make those websites have put things on them that are knowingly or unknowingly incorrect but said in an authoritative manner. That was all I was saying, nothing controversial. That's been a known fact for a long time. You can't just read something on a single site and then be sure that it has to be true. I get that there are people who strangely fall in love with specific websites and think they are absolute truth, but thats always been a foolish way to use the internet.
A great example of people believing blindly is all these horribly doctored google ai images saying ridiculous things. There are so many idiots that think every time they see a screenshot of Google ai saying something absurd that it has to be true. People have even gone so far as to use ridiculous fonts just to point out how easy it is to get people to trust anything. Now there's a bunch of idiots that think all 20 or so Google ai mistakes they've seen are all genuine, so much so that they think almost all Google ai responses are incorrect. Some people are very stupid. Sorry to break it to you, but LLMs are not the first thing to put incorrect information on the internet.
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Ray Kurzweil has a phenomenal record of making predictions. He's like 90% or something and has been saying AGI by 2029 for something like 30+ years. Last I heard, he is sticking with it, but he admits he may be a year or two off in either direction. AGI is a pretty broad term, but if you take it as "better than nearly every human in every field of expertise," then I think 2029 is quite reasonable.
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I mean in these fields, it is superior. The greatest chess player is an AI. The greatest GO player is an AI. The greatest poker player.. So far as Matrix multiplication goes, there are numerous examples of mathematicians being stuck at finding methods to do it at a certain level of efficiency and then having AI come through and finding more efficient ways to do it for given matrix sizes. Similar to this is drug creation and protein folding. The list goes on and on. I wasn't comparing discoveries across fields, I'm just saying in clearly measurable specific fields, AI has objectively surpassed humans, and it has become pretty routine for this to be the case.
All these things I've mentioned are easily searchable, but if you still want sources after my clarification of my meaning let me know, and I'll find some.
I just happen to eat a vegan diet because I travel a lot and refuse to pay people to do things to animals that I wouldn't feel morally comfortable doing myself. Maybe if I settle down somewhere, I would find a farm that allows me to personally verify the ethical treatment of the animals. I don't feel like I'm missing out on anything, though. I'm in great shape, not deficient in anything, and am routinely assumed to be 10 years younger than I am.
From my experience, the people who think meat is required to be healthy usually have the worst diets and are addicted to eating the most low quality processed garbage meat available. It's never people in good shape that go on and on about how crucial meat is.
Everest was never something that people would do quickly. You have to go extremely slowly to get adjusted to the elevation.
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Yeah, I was responding to someone saying that big corporations were going to take over AI, I was just pointing out that this isn't a given since there are other massively successful tech projects that are open source community-driven projects. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough.
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I'm honestly a bit jealous of you. You are going to be so amazed when you realise this stuff is just barely getting started. It's insane what people are already building with agents. Once this stuff gets mainstream, and specialized hardware hits the market, our current paradigm is going to seem like silent black and white films compared to what will be going on. By 2030 we will feel like 2020 was half a century ago at least.
I agree that it doesn't look fun, and it absolutely seems stupid, and on top of that, a massive waste of money. That all said, it sure seems like an incredible experience to have, and I would love to know what it feels like to make my way to that peak.
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Yes, ML/AI has, you are correct. So far as the capabilities of GenAI goes, we have not even begun to scratch the surface of understanding how all the emergent abilities of GenAI are happening, and nobody has any idea where they will max out at. All we know is that it is finding some patterns that humans find over time as well as many patterns that humans have not been able to find. The chances that it continues to find more and more complex patterns that we have not found are much higher than the chances that we are currently at the max of its ability.
Maybe it won't be transformers that leads to breakthroughs, it may be some completely different architecture such as Mamba/state space, but there is a good chance that transformers are a step in the direction of discovering something better.
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Yeah, that's the nature of discovery. Humans also "discovery" tons of things like chess strategies that are complete nonsense. Over time, we discard the most nonsense ones and keep the good ones as best as we can. It just turns out that this process is done way faster and efficiently by machines. That's why nobody thinks humans are going to surpass AI at chess, go, poker, protein folding, matrix multiplation algorithm creation, and a whole bunch of other things.
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The decentralized AI hardware movement is also rapidly growing to deal with this issue.
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So refreshing when the voice of reason pops up in here. Thankyou!
You read too many headlines and not enough papers. There is a massive list of advancements that AI has brought about. Hell, there is even a massive list of advancements that you personally benefit from daily. You might not realize it, but you are constantly benefiting from super efficient methods of matrix multiplications that AI has discovered. You benefit from drugs that have been discovered by AI. Guess what what has made google the top search engine for 20 years? AI efficiency gains. The list goes on and on..