Four years on: Canada, Ukraine, and the end of familiar assumptions
Four years on: Canada, Ukraine, and the end of familiar assumptions
Four years on: Canada, Ukraine, and the end of familiar assumptions
The question is no longer whether we support Ukraine or not, but how we do so in a world where old assumptions no longer hold.
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war persists, but the world around it has shifted. Ukraine’s resilience has fortunately upended expectations, while Canada’s support has been steadfast. Yet, the strategic environment that shaped early allied responses now gives way to something far less stable.
Assumptions regarding deterrence and the durability of the international system are now being tested not only in Ukraine, but across the globe.
The rules-based international order that once underpinned collective responses to aggression is fraying. Enforcement is uneven, and deterrence is contested. Geopolitical competition increasingly shapes outcomes beyond norms alone. Prime Minister Mark Carney underscored this reality at Davos, speaking candidly about the role of middle powers in a fragmented world. His message was not one of retreat, but of responsibility. He posited that countries like Canada may not dictate global outcomes, but can still shape them through coalition-building and sustained engagement.
Ukraine remains the clearest test of that proposition.
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To understand what that future should look like, Operation Unifier provides an instructive starting point. What began as a security force capacity building mission prior to the invasion has now evolved rapidly to meet wartime needs. Looking ahead, its natural evolution may lie in helping Ukraine rebuild and professionalize its security institutions for the long term ... Demining and the clearance of unexploded ordnance will be another defining challenge. Ukraine is now one of the most contaminated countries in the world not only with legacy munitions, but also with the remnants of modern warfare, including drones, sensors, and fibre-optic systems scattered across civilian and agricultural lands ... This is an area where sustained Canadian leadership could save lives in the immediate and long-term, restoring livelihoods and contributing meaningfully to regional stability.
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Beyond these military commitments, there is a broader opportunity to rethink how Canada engages Ukraine on a nation-to-nation basis. NATO’s Article 2, colloquially “the Canadian Article,” reminds us that collective security also depends on economic co-operation and resilience. Energy development, defence research, and industrial collaboration can support Ukraine’s reconstruction while strengthening Canada’s own capacity when we, too, are reassessing national resilience and supply chains. Supporting the rebuilding of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure while learning from its approach to defence innovation may prove instructive for a country that is itself rebuilding industrial and energy resilience.
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