D•Scribe
  • Communities
  • Create Post
  • Create Community
  • heart
    Support Lemmy
  • search
    Search
  • Login
  • Sign Up
return2ozma@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 6 months ago

Kamala Harris predicted to win by nearly every major forecaster

www.newsweek.com

external-link
message-square
45
fedilink
74
external-link

Kamala Harris predicted to win by nearly every major forecaster

www.newsweek.com

return2ozma@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 6 months ago
message-square
45
fedilink
"A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close," pollsters FiveThirtyEight wrote on their website.
alert-triangle
You must log in or register to comment.
  • justhach@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    185
    arrow-down
    4
    ·
    edit-2
    6 months ago

    “Kamala Harris Hillary Clinton predicted to win by nearly every major forecaster”

    Its like 2016 never even fucking happened lol

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      84
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      6 months ago

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      34
      arrow-down
      3
      ·
      6 months ago

      She was predicted to win the popular vote…

      And she did.

      Looking at statewide polling and a lot of battleground states were coinflips.

      The problem was anyone mentioning that got screeched at for wanting trump to win…

      • Razzazzika@lemm.ee
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        14
        ·
        6 months ago

        This comment also aged like milk. Trump is 5 mil over harris in pop vote

        • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          7
          ·
          6 months ago

          I really didn’t think she’d fuck it up this much.

          The last three elections have been like Brewster’s Millions where it’s like the Dem is trying to lose.

      • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        13
        ·
        6 months ago

        She was predicted to win the popular vote…And she did.

        But this article is saying it’s based on the EC,

        Nate Silver’s latest forecast now gives Vice President Kamala Harris a slight edge in the Electoral College
        The model shows Harris securing 271 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 267.

        • MeekerThanBeaker@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          10
          ·
          6 months ago

          That is too close. I hate that it’s that close.

          I want her to get over 350… over 400 even.

          • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            6 months ago

            Hey, same here. And you know what? There’s hope - at least one pollster is predicting a major blowout for Harris, https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

    • Catoblepas@lemmy.blahaj.zone
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      12
      arrow-down
      6
      ·
      6 months ago

      Do you want them to not make any predictions until voting is over or what?

      • rockSlayer@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        27
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        6 months ago

        That would be an improvement

      • Beacon@fedia.io
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        20
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        6 months ago

        Yes, that is what we want.

        • Catoblepas@lemmy.blahaj.zone
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          5
          arrow-down
          6
          ·
          6 months ago

          OK, good luck with that.

      • snooggums@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        17
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        6 months ago

        YES (no predictions)

        Honestly there should be zero results posted until all votes are counted. Counting as they come in influences later voters, especially in western time zones.

        I thought there was an election in the not too distant past where the news declared a winner before Hawaii even finished voting.

        • SaltySalamander@fedia.io
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          6 months ago

          I disagree with the “no predictions” part, but fully 100% agree with not releasing any results until all votes are tallied.

          • snooggums@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            2
            ·
            6 months ago

            What would they base predictions on without results?

          • JackbyDev@programming.dev
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            6 months ago

            Tallying the votes makes the results though.

    • FlowVoid@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      edit-2
      6 months ago

      deleted by creator

  • PonyOfWar@pawb.social
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    85
    ·
    6 months ago

    I wouldn’t say giving Harris a 50.4 percent chance of winning is predicting her to win. That’s effectively a coin toss.

    • ohellidk@sh.itjust.works
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      43
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      6 months ago

      yeah, I really hate seeing these types of articles during elections. some will skim past it and go “well, its cool. I don’t need to vote, she got it” and that kind of lazyness is how elections are lost.

      • WhatAmLemmy@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        18
        ·
        6 months ago

        That’s the whole point. America’s plutocracy — who own most of the media — want a fascist dictatorship. They’ve been financing and amplifying Trump the entire time.

        What more could a capitalist want than no competition, low/zero taxes, and not having to worry about the risk that democracy represents to their wealth and power…

    • JackbyDev@programming.dev
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      3
      ·
      6 months ago

      If it’s greater than 50% it’s 100%!

  • brrt@sh.itjust.works
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    48
    ·
    6 months ago

    I didn’t know milk could age this quickly.

  • Hylactor@sopuli.xyz
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    44
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    6 months ago

    Vote. Pressure those around you to vote as well. I had to watch Gore lose, Hillary lose, we can’t keep doing this.

  • Ellvix@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    43
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    edit-2
    6 months ago

    Articles like this are going to make people think they don’t have to vote. Ffs

    • EndOfLine@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      22
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      6 months ago

      I can’t help but feel like that’s the point.

  • sudo_shinespark@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    31
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    6 months ago

    Cool story, bro.

    PLEASE GO VOTE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY

  • JaggedRobotPubes@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    26
    arrow-down
    3
    ·
    6 months ago

    Every poll is a lie. Vote!

  • kittenzrulz123@lemmy.blahaj.zone
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    20
    ·
    6 months ago

    This aged like fine milk

    • Murvel@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      6 months ago

      Yeah, if you leave it in the sun all day

  • DirkMcCallahan@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    17
    ·
    6 months ago

    This is extremely misleading. Most data-driven outlets are open about saying that a 51% chance of a Harris victory is essentially a coin flip.

    And the ones that are based off of gut feelings rather than data? They’re less than useless.

  • paddirn@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    16
    ·
    6 months ago

    Until the votes are counted, this doesn’t mean shit.

  • JigglySackles@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    17
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    6 months ago

    And this shit is exactly why listening to polls is useless.

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      3
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      6 months ago

      polls were actually pretty good.

  • zanyllama52@infosec.pub
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    ·
    6 months ago

    America did it again.

  • Sunshine (she/her)@lemmy.ca
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    6 months ago

    I’m hopping this is true!

    Please vote everyone!

  • nutsack@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    11
    ·
    edit-2
    6 months ago

    well thank fuck

    • Syd@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      6 months ago

      Not so fast

      • nutsack@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        6 months ago

        oh

  • GrammarPolice@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    10
    ·
    edit-2
    6 months ago

    This aged well

politics @lemmy.world

politics@lemmy.world

Subscribe from Remote Instance

Create a post
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: !politics@lemmy.world

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

  1. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  2. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  3. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to “Mom! He’s bugging me!” and “I’m not touching you!” Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
  4. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  5. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That’s all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News

• World News

• Business News

• Political Discussion

• Ask Politics

• Military News

• Global Politics

• Moderate Politics

• Progressive Politics

• UK Politics

• Canadian Politics

• Australian Politics

• New Zealand Politics

Visibility: Public
globe

This community can be federated to other instances and be posted/commented in by their users.

  • 3.74K users / day
  • 7.88K users / week
  • 13.9K users / month
  • 28.8K users / 6 months
  • 4 local subscribers
  • 23.4K subscribers
  • 11.9K Posts
  • 222K Comments
  • Modlog
  • mods:
  • outrageousmatter@lemmy.world
  • aidan@lemmy.world
  • jordanlund@lemmy.world
  • 🌱 🐄🌱 @lemmy.world
  • Theonetheycall1845@lemmy.world
  • JuBe@lemmy.world
  • Lasherz@lemmy.world
  • UI: unknown version
  • BE: 0.19.9
  • Modlog
  • Legal
  • Instances
  • Docs
  • Code
  • join-lemmy.org