As Canada's population growth slows, an economic shift emerges

One of the clearest effects of slowing population growth has been in real estate on the rental market, said Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in an interview.

Newcomers, such as temporary foreign workers and international students, show up in very specific areas of the economy, she explained, and this is one of them.

“One of the fastest effects we’ve seen is deceleration in rental prices across the country, but especially in places like Ontario and (British Columbia), where there is and was certainly a larger share of international students coming into the country,” she said.

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A drop in demand for rental units has also begun trickling into the overall housing market.

Smaller properties, such as condos, are now seeing a glut of inventory of new builds, but there are hardly any buyers, because renting out the units is a riskier proposition than it was a few years ago.

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There has also been a slowdown in investor activity in the housing market, which would be a drag on home building this year, he said.

“You’re getting this period of a real stagnation in the housing market through this year and into next year, in part driven by population,” Ercolao said.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. last month reported the agency’s six-month moving average for annual starts declined 3.5 per cent for the fourth consecutive month.

But the effects of slowing population growth haven’t been the same across all housing types.

“Detached (housing) market isn’t seeing as much of an effect since a very small share of newcomers to Canada aren’t really engaged in that part of the market,” Ercolao said.