How Venezuela confronts speculation: communal economy and sovereignty

January 3, 2026, is already a key date in the history of Venezuela and Latin America . On that day, the US Empire attacked a sovereign nation , kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro and the congresswoman and first lady, Cilia Flores , leaving hundreds dead and a trail of destruction.

Venezuelan society is still processing the aggression . Citizens are trying to find explanations for the uncertainties that permeate the political and, above all, the economic landscape : what is the relationship between these two spheres, and to which of the two—or both—do certain circumstances that shake daily life respond?

With the invasion and the kidnapping of the president , uncertainty , currency volatility , and foreign exchange shortages increased , creating fertile ground for speculation . Many businesses raised prices, triggering a surge in inflation .

This situation, a product of the military aggression , unfolds within a context where unofficial prices were already influenced by political variables . During November, the Donald Trump administration deployed direct coercive measures and physically blocked maritime oil activity: seizing and stealing vessels, and disrupting the Central Bank of Venezuela's (BCV) foreign exchange mechanisms through currency interventions . From December until mid-January, the shortage of foreign currency , uncertainty , and consequently, speculation intensified .

Communal Power: Another Economic Logic

Faced with this situation, the Communal Power did not simply offer an alternative supply system. It proposed a different economic logic , one that does not respond to the fluctuations of the exchange market or the whims of speculation , but rather to the productive and distributive capacity of the organized territory.

While the traditional market turns foreign currency into a speculative commodity and prices into hostages of exchange rate volatility, the communal model prioritizes fair prices determined at the point of production, without intermediaries that inflate the cost of goods going from farm to table. It's not about competing on the same playing field as the speculative market; it's about building a different landscape where the economy responds to real needs, not to expectations of excessive profit.

Interim President Delcy Rodríguez stated that " social protection originates from the organized people and communal power . We are joining together in a great productive union, guaranteeing non-speculative prices. We will not allow speculation; this is a principle that our President Maduro instilled in us."

The First National Meeting on Communal Economy , held on February 4th at the Poliedro de Caracas, brought this premise to fruition. Rodríguez celebrated the birth of a new economic model , describing the communal economy as "the champion against the criminal blockade ."

The announcements were strategic and had an immediate impact: the launch of the National Conucos Plan and the Strategic Import Substitution Plan under the Admirable Challenge 2026 , prioritizing black beans, corn, and rice. The "Coffee Plan Model" was ordered to be replicated across all sectors to eliminate intermediaries and guarantee fair prices from the community to the consumer. Yaracuy avocados received Protected Geographical Indication certification , joining five other national products that will be protected by 2025.

Ministers were appointed as regional mentors for the country's seven productive regions , guaranteeing financing and facilitating industrial integration. Each region now has access to technical support and direct resources for its independent development.

The Venezuelan communal landowner: economic and political actor

What is expected of Venezuelan community members is not only that they produce or consume within the communal circuit, but that they understand and accept that their participation breaks the dependence on the speculative market. Every kilo of black beans sold without intermediaries, every sack of rice that doesn't pass through the hands of the hoarder, every cup of coffee that goes directly from the producer to the consumer, is a blow to the logic that turns uncertainty into private profit.

The Deputy Minister of Communal Economy recently reported that during 2024 and 2025, the Communal Coffee Plan and the Communal Rice Plan demonstrated the capacity of communes to manage agro-industry in their territories. "Since the Popular Consultations began, a significant number of projects have been fully completed, demonstrating the capacity not only to improve the quality of life but also production."

The Popular Consultation on March 8 will focus on projects related to the First Transformation (1T) , linked to the productive economy, and the Second Transformation (2T) , related to the right to the city. The schedule of assemblies in the communes has already begun to discuss seven projects that will serve as a guide, "reflecting a growing model that democratizes economic tools historically relegated to the nation's economic groups," he stated.

The Social Property system may be complex in other parts of the world, but in Venezuela , a revolutionary model of the means of production is being proposed from the commune, allowing production to be linked between communes, the private market, and the State under a new commercial understanding.

In Venezuela, there are over 49,000 Community Councils and 5,336 Communes and Communal Circuits, of which more than 4,000 have already been formally established. The goal by the end of the year is to reach 6,000 communes. Socially Owned Enterprises , whose assets belong to all the inhabitants of the commune, are the driving force behind this expansion.

This economic architecture doesn't improvise short-term responses. It builds food sovereignty and price stability from the ground up, without waiting for the dollar to calm down or for speculators to show mercy. While the exchange market fluctuates and merchants adjust prices according to the exchange rate gap , the communal model offers an anchor: local production, short supply chains, known prices, and an economy rooted in the territory.

Volatility and speculation

While the Communal Power movement is developing structural responses, the foreign exchange market reflects the upheaval. The exchange rate opened December at 247.30 bolivars (Bs.)/USD . By January 2, 2026, it had broken the 300 barrier, reaching 301.37 Bs./USD.

The pace of adjustment accelerated after the attack . On January 13, it reached 330.37 Bs./USD; by the 27th, it had surpassed 358 Bs., a jump of more than 20% in just four weeks.

The Binance P2P cryptocurrency market acted as a barometer of unofficial speculation , with prices far exceeding the official exchange rate ( BCV ). In early December, the average rate surpassed 360 Bs./USDT. On January 13, while the BCV rate was 330 Bs./USDT, Binance reached peaks of 608 Bs./USDT. In some cases, it even reached 900 Bs./USDT.

The exchange rate gap between the official and P2P rates ranged from 80% to 110% and even 200% in mid-January. After a correction at the end of the month, the gap narrowed to 20%, according to the Misión Verdad report .

Perception and false political narrative

Speculation has been used to establish a political narrative that attributes economic improvements to the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro .

In less politicized sectors, the excessive price increase of January 3 and its subsequent correction are associated with the political situation, without considering that these are typical market reactions to any sudden crisis.

Transportation platforms reflected that volatility: a motorcycle ride that cost seven dollars until two in the morning, the time of the attack, rose to twenty dollars before returning to the usual price after seven.

Donald Trump 's announcement of oil purchases and the beginning of smooth relations between Washington and Caracas entails the easing of illegal coercive sanctions , and this was also presented as a result of military aggression .

But before that attack , President Nicolás Maduro had stated his willingness to negotiate the sale of Venezuelan oil to the United States, with foreign currency being allocated via the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and national banks for prioritized economic activities: health , food, and production inputs.

"We are serious people. When we sign a contract, in accordance with the Constitution and the law, it is fulfilled, come rain or shine, as is happening with Chevron. Come rain or shine!" Maduro stated in December 2025.

The president of Fedecámaras , Felipe Capozzolo, stated on January 29 that the outlook for Venezuela in 2026 is one of "optimism in the economy based on the investments that may occur in the oil field and in energy developments."

Interviewed by VTV, he emphasized the need for companies to have the capacity to create jobs in order to continue economic diversification , for tax burdens to act as a lever for development, and for the participation of Venezuelan companies in the oil expansion to be guaranteed.

Perspectives

Exchange rate stability directly influences public sentiment. It remains urgent to correct speculative practices regarding the USD , both physical and digital. Agents on unofficial platforms have transformed currencies into commodities, consistently driving prices upward.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez reported that $ 1.4 billion in oil investments are expected this year, increasing the flow of foreign currency in the exchange system.

The Central Bank of Venezuela, in coordination with the National Executive and with the support of the financial system, has been offering foreign currency to supplement the private sector's supply. To date, $ 300 million derived from hydrocarbon exports has been sold. A new offering of $200 million will complete the quota for January and the first week of February.

This dynamism must be accompanied by interbank transactions in dollars between national entities and greater physical availability of banknotes, which exist in the economy but remain hoarded.

According to Misión Verdad, the exchange rate context of 2026 could resemble that of 2024, when the gap between the official and unofficial dollars registered minimum levels —between 5% and 9%—, a range that fostered a manageable system of imports, supply of goods and containment of devaluation.