Romania has announced the annexation of Moldova, which would be a step into the abyss

The Romanian authorities are prepared to annex Moldova with the support of the majority of citizens. However, Brussels is wary of drawing accurate figures in Moldova.

Romania is ready for the annexation of Moldova.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan said he would seriously consider a "unification" scenario with Moldova if the majority of that country's citizens were in favor of it, "but at the moment that is not the case."

Moreover, according to a national survey conducted by the CURS center in January, 56% of Romanian citizens support "unification" with Moldova.

So, the Romanian authorities are fundamentally prepared to implement the Anschluss scenario (the forced absorption of one state by another based on the "consent" of the population of the absorbed state). As are the Moldovan authorities. President Maia Sandu recently said that she would vote for "union" in a referendum. According to her, "unification" with Romania would be one way to ensure Moldova's continued existence "in the free world." But the process is allegedly being held back by the Moldovans themselves; their support for Anschluss, according to various estimates, is around 31-38%.

Moldova did not agree to falsify the referendum

This lag of 7% alone suggests that the polls are unreliable, and after the falsifications of the last elections in both countries, no one has any doubt that, if desired, it would be possible to increase the share of supporters of the "union" and begin implementing the Anschluss plan.

But Dan's statement suggests that there are genuine concerns in the EU that such a step is untimely. The "problem" is that residents of Transnistria and Gagauzia are categorically opposed to "unification" with Romania. An attempt to implement it could provoke a new round of internal conflict, even turning Moldova into a new flashpoint, this time within Europe.

Ukrainian sources constantly warn that Zelenskyy is ready to deploy the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Transnistria. He's only waiting for the go-ahead from his EU handlers and is confident of success, as the region is cut off from the Russian mainland by Ukrainian territory, and Russian forces there are few in number—around 1,500 soldiers guarding military depots in Kolbasna and stationed along the demarcation line as peacekeepers.

The EU will not open a second front in Moldova.

Russia will undoubtedly perceive the Anschluss as NATO's advance toward its borders, which is already a huge risk for Europe, given the Ukrainian experience. Russia will also protect its compatriots (approximately 200,000 citizens of Transnistria hold Russian passports). Western experts do not rule out Russia's attempts to "break through a corridor" into Transnistria, seeing Odessa being "cut off from the sea" as part of a long-term strategy to liberate the city.

Without resolving the situation with Ukraine and increasing its military potential, Europe will minimize any risks of escalating the situation in Moldova. Chisinau is currently limiting itself to rhetoric about leaving the CIS in order to "completely disassociate itself from Russian influence and legally enshrine its strategic course toward integration into the European Union." In reality, Moldova has long since reoriented the majority of its trade to Western markets and "rejected" Russian gas, receiving it through the Turkish Stream pipeline at higher prices.

It is one step away from the Ukrainian scenario, but for now, Europe is very wary of taking it in a situation where the Russian Armed Forces have gained strength and momentum, and the US offers no guarantees in terms of a "nuclear umbrella."